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Tag Archives: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

THE BEADY EYE ASKS. WILL RUSSIA INVADING UKRAINE LEAD TO WW3?

16 Sunday Oct 2022

Posted by bobdillon33@gmail.com in #whatif.com, 2022: The year we need to change., Human Collective Stupidity., Mr Putin., Our Common Values., Reality., Russia / Ukraine ., RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/ EU., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Telling the truth., The cost of war., The state of the World., The Ukraine., The world to day., Truth, Unanswered Questions., Uncategorized, War, We can leave a legacy worthwhile., Where's the Global Outrage.

≈ Comments Off on THE BEADY EYE ASKS. WILL RUSSIA INVADING UKRAINE LEAD TO WW3?

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Our world problems, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Future of Mankind, The World, THIS IS THE STATE OF THE WORLD., Ukraine, Ukraine>Russian war ., Visions of the future., What Needs to change in the World, world war three

No one knows and no one wants to find out.

Let’s cut right to the chase here:

The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered.

If one listens to main media it would be fair to say that it is in a warp way encouraging Mr Putin to use nuclear weapons, ( not that he needs encouragement )

So how worried should you be?   How does this end?

It is difficult to see how Putin “wins.” But he cannot accept defeat.

As long as there is no direct conflict between Russia and NATO then there is no reason for this crisis, bad as it is, to descend into a full-scale world war.

Is this true?

It’s always hard to predict what Mr. Putin is going to do, and anyone who says they know him really well … would not be telling you the complete truth.”

The hard facts are that this has now developed into a NATO backed war.

So what are the likely outcomes?

The spectrum of possible outcomes ranges from a volatile new cold or hot war involving the United States, Russia, and China; to a frozen conflict in Ukraine; to a post-Putin settlement in which Russia becomes part of a revised European security architecture.

That is as honest an assessment as anyone who isn’t Vladimir Putin can give you.

But the wild card here is the state of Putin’s mind.

The whole idea after the Second World War was we’re going to try to set up a system whereby we live in a world in which big countries cannot just decide we’re going to send in our military and take this territory that belongs to this other country has never worked.

There is almost zero mutual trust remaining between Russia and the West.

While the conflict is tragic for the Ukrainian people, it’s unlikely to lead to World War III because, at the moment, it appears that no world leaders want it to escalate to that degree, and efforts are being made to make sure fighting stays within Ukraine’s borders.

There are three major factors that make Europe today different from in the 1930s and ’40s and could prevent World War III.

The first is the NATO alliance.

The second factor is the presence of nuclear weapons.

The third is that the Ukraine is not a NATO member, so there is no formal obligation to come to its defence.

Where is this war going to go is however the big question keeping the world on edge:

It is fair to say that China or the USA would not allow their countries to be surrounded by nuclear missiles.

So be in now doubt that intellectual laziness, historical amnesia and dishonesty will take lives in the years to come.

History is indeed little more than the register of the crimes, follies and misfortunes of mankind.” – Edward Gibbon (1737-1794) or to quote the late Norman Mailer, “Whatever else it is, history is a bitch.”

There is a saying that nothing unites a country better than being invaded by an enemy but Putin’s actions have far-reaching implications for global politics and democracy.

This is a dangerous backdrop against which to have a blazing public row over who is to blame for the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

Europeans need to ask themselves hard questions. Are they willing to confront Russia? Is Russia going to challenge the borders of NATO? And how should Europe respond?

The immediate question is how to diminish Russia’s ability to threaten its neighbours.

The West’s political, economic, and military posture toward Russia is obviously in a state of flux at the moment. As a result unlike the Soviet Union, Russia is no longer a global competitor to the United States and there is no strong ideological component that unifies and divides the international community with regard to Russia.

Rather, what we see is a revisionist Russia (with somewhat limited capabilities to project force beyond its borders) that is challenging core principles of the international community.

So we have a long and potentially very unsettled period ahead of us that no radiation will cure.

All human comments appreciated. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.

Contact: bobdillon33@gmail.com

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THE BEADY EYE ASK’S; WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT RUSSIA?

07 Wednesday Sep 2022

Posted by bobdillon33@gmail.com in Uncategorized

≈ Comments Off on THE BEADY EYE ASK’S; WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT RUSSIA?

Tags

Russia, RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/ EU., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

What do we really know about the Russian.

The history of the name of Russia is just as convoluted as the history of Russia itself:

It like all countries involves conquest, power struggles, dissolution, and reunification, all are integral part of the way we perceive the world that we rarely ponder their origins.

Modern Russia derives its name from the Kevian Rus’, the ancestors of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

The name Rus’ comes from an Old Norse word for ‘the men who row.’‘ and the men who rowed’ were Vikings who arrived from the territory of modern-day Sweden and became dominant in the region for at least a few centuries.

The Vikings rowed from Sweden to the now-Russian territories and down the rivers all the way to Ukraine. The earliest sources mentioning the Rus’ come from the beginning and middle of the ninth century from Byzantium, Persia, and France.

The Soviet Union Collapses On December 25, 1991 replaced by 15 independent countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

Russia’s name truly is a mirror in which Russia itself is reflected with a tendency to swing from one extreme to the other has been very noticeable during the past quarter of a century.

We must remember that before 1914 Russia was predominantly a backward agricultural country.  Until modern times Russia’s geographic “remoteness” from the rest of the world and her inaccessibility except by land or air routes have had afar-reaching influence on her history.

If one thinks about Russia today it conjures up many names associated with its existence.

In no particular or historical order here are a few.

Peter the Great, Karl Marx, Josef Stalin, Lenin, Bolshevik Revolution,  Khrushchev, Leon Trotsky, Moscow Red Square, St Petersburg, Yuri Gagarin, Vodka, KGB, Trans-Siberian Railway. Stalingrad,  Volga River,  Doctor Zhivago, Mikhail Gorbachev,  Boris Yeltsin, Roman Abramovich, Oligarchs, Alexey Navalny, Communism. Chernobyl, Putin.

In fact what we are talking about is a enormous country with a surface area of 17.13 million square kilometres, with 643 billion trees –holding around 20% of the world’s freshwater, providing  27% of the EU’s crude oil imports, 41% of its natural gas, and 47% of its solid fuel (such as coal) with a population of 146,069,910, speaking at least 270 languages and dialects, a nuclear superpower, separated from the USA by just 4km of water. 

No country is entirely self-sufficient but it possesses some of the richest natural resources of any country in the world.

Indeed, as the world’s third-largest oil producer Russia has yet to make renewable energy an absolute priority.

For Russia’s domestic audience there is no doubt about the “greatness” of the country, which makes it an indispensable player in international politics and deserves recognition by other major powers.

This means that Moscow is driven primarily by security concerns; viewed from such a perspective, the actions against Georgia and Ukraine could be aimed at preventing NATO expansion.

The annexation of Crimea in 2013 and now its involvement into conflict with Ukraine have led to the country being perceived as a revisionist power and breaker of international norms.

——————–

Russia’s communist system is a form of socialism—a higher and more advanced form, according to its advocates. A political and economic doctrine that aims to replace private property and a profit-based economy with public ownership and communal control of at least the major means of production (e.g., mines, mills, and factories) and the natural resources of a society.

Although the term communism did not come into use until the 1840s—it is derived from the Latin communis, meaning “shared” or “common”— You might not believe it but for much of the 20th century, in fact, about one-third of the world’s population lived under communist regimes.

It was neither a religious upheaval nor a civil war but a technological and economic revolution—the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and early 19th centuries—that provided the impetus and inspiration for modern communism.

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

To understand Russia’s foreign policy we must bear in mind that, by and large, the Stalin regime has acted in world affairs not on the basis of Marxist doctrine, but on the basis of Russia’s national interests.

Stalin’s principal objectives have been to make Russia independent of the rest of the world in a military and economic sense and to protect the security of the Soviet Union against external attack during the period of “building socialism in one country.”

What is really puzzling about Russian foreign policy (and very much deserves further exploration) now is the positioning of Russia in various scales: regional, macro-regional (Eurasian), and global, and their compatibility and (in) consistency, as well as (and at the same time) Russian positioning with regards to its main neighbours, China and the European Union.

“The question we ought to be asking ourselves is why did NATO even exist after 1990?

If NATO was to stop Communism, why is it now expanding to Russia?”

It is important to note that not everyone in the world subscribes to the western ideas of democracy, or even to democracy itself. Not being a democracy is nothing illegal — it may sound regressive in today’s world but it is not illegal.

To try to intimidate and arm-twist a nuclear superpower in the name of democracy unfortunately now has terrible consequences for the Ukrainians and will never work.Global view of Russia and former Soviet satellite countries labeled.

Whether the war in Ukraine lasts weeks, months, or years, depends on individual actions that run the gamut from those of world leaders, to ordinary citizens and soldiers. Soldiers are most likely to disobey orders when they recognize that a war will not achieve its objectives, or that they are fighting for their leaders’ survival and against their own interests.

In order to end a war, a leader’s chances of political and physical survival must be taken into calculation.

An outright defeat of Russia in Ukraine may actually translate into a death sentence for Russian President Vladimir Putin. One would expect Russia therefore to lower its demands but we’ve seen very little evidence of that so far—only the demand of denazification seems to have been dropped.

In a regime like Russia—which is clearly not a democracy, but also not quite a dictatorship—if you win a war, you’re the great hero; if you lose a war, you have shown your incompetence and you’ll be removed

In a recent speech, Putin called the borders drawn after World Wars I and II illegitimate. He said the borders that were drawn by Lenin and by Stalin, partially as a result of the First and Second World War, are illegitimate and have to go. And if those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point:

The question is, which empire does he think needs reconstituting? Is it the Soviet Union? Or is it Tsarist Russia? And if it’s the latter—and there are some indications in his speeches that he does mean the latter—then Poland and other countries are going to be justifiably worried.

Putin, now seems to be committing himself to total victory. If he can’t get it, he’ll be responsible and that makes a coup against him more likely.

Putin must come home with some kind of victory because otherwise he’s literally dead.

Are Russians really going to bomb Kyiv, a so-called “hero city of the Soviet Union,” into rubble like they did with Chechnya’s capital Grosny?  Are they willing to kill tens of thousands of people?

No one knows.

He wants to prevent more of these revolutions and prevent a democratic encirclement of countries around him, which could provide a safe haven for Russian dissidents who’d be dangerous to Putin’s political survival. Both of these goals overlap in the sense that he is seeking regime change, which is a dangerous game.

There’s also an interlocking commitment problem here:

Ukraine cannot promise not to join NATO in the long term, which Russia sees as a threat to its borders. At the same time, Russia can’t promise credibly not to ask for more if Ukraine made some concessions now, whether it be territorial concessions, regime change, or a promise not to join NATO.

So the question is.

If there’s a coup against Putin, what would the new Russian government insist on? They’re not necessarily all going to say, “Okay, sorry Ukraine, we made a mistake. Please excuse us.” And Ukrainians would not necessarily accept that anyway. Most likely, Ukraine would strengthen its demands and want Crimea back, resulting in ongoing bloodshed, pulverizing of Ukrainian cities, coupled with insurgencies.

Russia will never have full control of Ukraine. The West—that is Western Democracies—cannot, in my opinion, accept a victorious Putin.

We should not forget those people who are fighting and the costs they are willing to shoulder. Many of them will die because of Putin’s folly.

We’re in a situation where either success or failure both present horrible, dangerous situations, we’d better be very careful and think very, very carefully about what we can do, and perhaps what we cannot do, and prepare accordingly. You don’t want to corner Putin with sanctions to the extent that he feels that he must gamble—all or nothing.

We now at the point that Putin is afraid domestic enemies might overthrow and kill him, and there’s little the West can do to address those fears. The only avenue worth exploring in peace negotiations might be true plebiscites, overseen by international observers.

All human comments appreciated. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin

Contact: bobdillon33@gmail.com.

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. PUTIN IS NOWADAYS ISOLATED AND IN HIS OWN ‘STEROID WORLD’. IN HIS OWN MENTAL WORLD.

09 Wednesday Mar 2022

Posted by bobdillon33@gmail.com in 2022: The year we need to change., RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/ EU, The Ukraine.

≈ Comments Off on THE BEADY EYE SAYS. PUTIN IS NOWADAYS ISOLATED AND IN HIS OWN ‘STEROID WORLD’. IN HIS OWN MENTAL WORLD.

Tags

RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/ EU., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Future of Mankind, Ukraine

 

(Three-minute read) 

Putin has been posing as Russia’s defender against an allegedly aggressive West and redeemer of ethnic Russians and brother Slavs everywhere since he came to power.

A heroic Ukrainian defense that actually repels Russian forces remains militarily unlikely,  but a Ukrainian victory would make all the above propaganda untenable.

He could not survive the defeat politically and knows it.

Therefore he won’t allow this scenario to happen.

Instead of withdrawing, he’ll follow one of three other paths.

                                             —————–

He could escalate the attack dramatically — but still with only conventional weapons. Basically, that means bombing Ukraine into submission. The loss of civilian and military lives would be horrendous, but Putin wouldn’t care. He would incorporate a seething and resentful Ukraine — either as a nominally independent puppet state or a subdivision of Greater Russia — and maybe add Belarus for good measure.

His empire would become a permanent pariah in the international community.

The world would have a new Iron Curtain.

Putin will therefore at least consider another — literally nuclear — option.

It’s the one he’s already hinted at.

Claiming that NATO and the EU are cornering him by supporting Ukraine with weapons and other wherewithal, he could launch one or more “limited” nuclear strikes with so-called tactical (here meaning low-yield) warheads.

Ukraine, like Japan in 1945, would have no choice but to surrender.

So what can be hope for?  

A homegrown Russian revolution would be by far the best outcome.

The new regime in Moscow could blame the attack on Putin alone, which happens to be true. It could therefore withdraw without looking weak. The international community could welcome Russia back with open arms. The world, including Russia, would become a better place.

China could flex its economic mussel.   

At the United Nations this week, 141 countries voted to deplore Putin’s aggression. China could have joined the four rogues (Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria) who voted with Russia against the resolution.

Instead, along with 34 other countries, it merely abstained.

As for ‘steroids.’ They are synthetic hormones, similar to testosterone, which have anabolic (bodybuilding) effects due to the fact they stimulate the growth of skeletal muscle. They also have androgenic (male) effects which enhance typical male characteristics. When you see a male bodybuilder, many will have been using steroids to create this appearance.

PERHAPS THIS IS WHY PUTIN HAS LOST THE PLOT. 

In the long term, anabolic steroids affect the central nervous system of the human brain, directly on neurotransmitter systems.

After all, the best way to deal with a cornered rat is usually to let it escape before it does more harm.

All human comments are appreciated. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.

 

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. WITH THE OUTBRAKE OF WAR IN THE UKRAIN THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR THE REST OF US IN THE WORLD TO CLOSE OUR EYES AND GO ASLEEP.

09 Wednesday Mar 2022

Posted by bobdillon33@gmail.com in 2022: The year we need to change., Profiteering., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Ukraine.

≈ Comments Off on THE BEADY EYE SAYS. WITH THE OUTBRAKE OF WAR IN THE UKRAIN THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR THE REST OF US IN THE WORLD TO CLOSE OUR EYES AND GO ASLEEP.

Tags

Capitalism and Greed, Profiteering., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

( Seven-minute read) 

The war will have many far-reaching consequences, most of which we can’t predict yet. It is not mature enough to cause a major market crash which is an unfortunate possibility.

Apart from weapon manufacturing companies like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin — who are openly telling their investors that tensions between the countries are good for business, there will be what I call Scap other companies making profiteering where the sun does not shine. 

So we need a list of these companies TO EXPOSE them and BOYCOTT them.

For now, the sanctions imposed on Russia are not targeting energy. But that can change if the conflict evolves further. ( IT HAS JUST BEEN ANNOUNCED AS I WRITE THIS POST THAT THE USA/EUROPEAN UNION/AND BRITAIN ARE TO STOP PURCHASING RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS.) 

RUSSIAN CRUDE IS HEAVY OIL. AS SUCH IT CAN NOT TO REPLACED WITH OIL FROM OTHER SOURCES AS MOST REFINERIES IN EUROPE ARE SET UP TO HANDLE HEAVY OIL TO PRODUCE PETROL. 

Of about five million barrels of crude oil Russia exports each day, more than half of that goes to Europe.  Russian gas accounts for about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports.

In the meantime the other wars – Afghanistan – Ethiopia – Yemen – Syria – South Sudan –  Israel/Palestine  – Equality vs Equity – Covid – all but ignored. 

There are 10 official wars and 8 active military conflicts recognized by the United States.  Everyone requires the same level of sanctions which are now to be applied to Russia.  Is Putin pulling the strings?

                                            —————————–

We already have an ever-growing list of companies taking action against Russia with “Collateral Damage” to all of us so the opportunity to hike prices by blaming the war is yet to be seen.

Large corporations will no doubt capitalize on anti-war sentiments, the same is doubly true for oil companies, banks, and energy.

Doesn’t it make you feel good knowing that these multi-billion dollar corporations will be able to cash in on the death of thousands of innocent Ukrainians?  

The fact that advertisers have to use the values of our movement to sell us products reflects just how strong our anti-war struggle has become.

This gobbledegook is the kind of thing that corporations pay tens of thousands of pounds for.

Sizewell

So let’s start with THE EDF. 

French nuclear stations are the backbone of the European power system, and the outages have contributed to higher power prices across the continent along with the wider gas supply crisis.

Here is an 85% state-owned company that has had a monopoly for years on energy squandering billions in the public funds now increasing the price of electricity by 54% coming in April amid a cost of living crisis as inflation and food costs rise.

EDF Energy was compelled to help out as a swathe of energy suppliers collapsed in the U.K., getting paid 168 million pounds to take on more than 200,000 domestic customers from failed providers. In total, the company added more than 650,000 residential accounts last year.

It was fined £6m by Ofgem for sending “misleading signals” to the National Grid about how much electricity its power plants could generate. The energy regulator found that for more than two years, EDF frequently inflated the minimum amount of power that it said its West Burton B generator plant could supply.

While EDF normally generates the bulk of its electricity from its network of 56 nuclear reactors across France, many are near the end of their 40-year lifespans and around a dozen have been shut or will be soon to carry out safety inspections over corrosion risk.

Much of the £20bn construction cost of the new EDF nuclear plant Hinkley Point C nuclear plant in southwest England in 2026, will be funded by the addition of £1 a month to consumer bills applied through a mechanism currently making its way through parliament.

This is what is to come.  EDF the energy price cap on certain deals is rising by 54% a year.  The price cap is not an absolute limit on your bills.

The sheer scale of these energy bill increases will cause real concern and fear for families and households. 

                                        —————————

“Successive governments have welcomed the oligarchs and their money with open arms, providing them with a means of recycling illicit finance through the London ‘laundromat’, and connections at the highest levels with access to UK companies and political figures.

For example 

Lubov Chernukhin is a Russian banker and married to Putin’s former finance minister. She has spent a fortune buying time with politicians, including £160,000 to play tennis with David Cameron and Boris Johnson. She paid £135,000 for “a night out with Theresa May”. The most recent donations—last quarter—to the Tory party include £80,000 from Chernukhin.

                                    ————————-

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is casting a pall over neighboring countries, with war jitters spurring panic-buying of gasoline, cash shortages, energy price hicks, etc. 

After reading about the greed and hypocrisy of all these corporations I bet I know what you are thinking. You are going to reject all this consumerism and get yourself a Stop the War Coalition T-shirt. Am I right?

If so, is it a case of subliminal advertising? Or is it the power of one of the largest political movements this country has ever seen? You decide.

Today, Russia provides 10% of the world’s oil. Do you want to make that oil worthless?

Show Putin, you don’t need it. That’s what accelerating the transition to a clean energy future will do.  

All human comments are appreciated.  All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.

 

 

 

 

 

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All comments and contributions much appreciated

  • THE BEADY EYE SAY’S: THE UKRAINE WAR IS NOW A WAR WHERE THERE CAN BE NO WINNERS. HERE ARE SOME ENTRENCHED TRUTHS. January 26, 2023
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