( Six minute read)

With the recent strike on St Petersburg the possibility of Putin using a nuclear weapon is a step closer and pushing the Nuclear button.

Here are a few critical events that could lead to him pushing the nuclear button.

One:

If Ukrainian advances or internal instability directly threatened Vladimir Putin’s grip on power or the survival of the state apparatus in Moscow.

Two:

If NATO combat forces entered the war directly, creating a conventional conflict that Russia could not win with traditional weapons.

Three:

If Russian frontline defenses completely fractured, leading to a rapid, chaotic retreat that threatened the total loss of Crimea or regions the Kremlin has annexed, Putin might consider a tactical nuclear strike to force a sudden halt to the fighting.

Four

If Russia because of its human losses (which now standing at over well over the million mark) enters a civil conflict. Putin might push the button to end the war.

This is how Gemini sum it up.

However because a nuclear deployment would carry catastrophic costs for Russia—including the total alienation of crucial economic partners like China and India, and a near-certain direct conventional military response from the United States—most analysts conclude that Putin views the nuclear arsenal as far more useful as an unfired threat to paralyze Western decision-making than as a practical weapon on the battlefield.

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