Category Archives: Inflation.

THE BEADY EYE SAY’S: OUT OF NO WHERE, OUR WORLD IS TURNED UPSIDE DOWN.

15 Monday Jan 2024

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( Five minute read)

A global pandemic killing millions of people and forcing entire countries into lockdown.

Then inflation takes off and (not unrelated) one country invades another and the resulting war affects us all.

Whoa! Where on Earth did all that come from?

We have to think about how we got here.

As if we don’t know its all wrapped up in one word   Inequality.Black placard with 'one world' written on it.

The cost of things average people must buy—healthcare, education, housing—tends to have risen more than wages did over the last two decades. Rising inequality across income, race and gender all demand urgent attention. It needs to made clear to leaders that in 2024 their citizens are expecting them to raise their ambition for humanity and deliver bold agreements to tackle poverty, inequality and climate change.

Government’s policy making will need to become more innovative to address such challenges other wise we going to have a left behind technological societies. We’re going to see, unfortunately, more technological unemployment. We’re going to have to think very carefully in political terms and in social terms about the implications of further automation.

Individual responsibility will play a role, too, in areas such as climate change.

To ignore the issue of inequality culture will need to adjust in terms of revisiting some of our values.

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To start thinking outside of the box. We may have to consider very seriously ideas such as a universal basic income.

There are just over 7 billion people living on the planet today, spread between 196 (recognized) countries. Within each of these countries are groups of people with different ethnic backgrounds, different religious beliefs, different political beliefs. It’s because of these differences, you could argue, that the world is plagued by conflict.

Unfortunately, the future isn’t talking. It’s just coming, like it or not and we as individuals need to take ownership of this.

I dont know about you but I realized long ago that globalization was on its last legs. I also realize this isn’t pleasant to think about. Western economies have become knowledge based. This means Marx’s three factors of production (land, labor, capital) now have a fourth.

Politics as a social contract between a sovereign and citizens is no longer working. Each individual’s share of sovereignty, and therefore their freedom, diminishes as the social contract includes more people.

Power now resides with those best able to organize knowledge turning politicians into basically middlemen, bring a shift to direct democracy, with popular social media protests swamping sprawling governments.

We must do more to assertively channel technology to support progress and protect people and the planet.

As we entered the the 2020s it is clear that we are far from unlocking the potential of technology for our toughest challenges. We stand at a critical juncture to put these technologies to work in a responsible way for people and the planet.

Technology and political trends are aligning against mega-powers like the US and China.

How do we reconcile that with democracy in countries with millions of citizens?

Not with “America Alone” ” Brexit” or any other forms of isolation, which are highly problematic, as they are based on anxiety and insecurity, so inevitably create discord and division.

This is obvious to anyone with a brain looking at climate change – trade – wars – inequality – technology’s – and ideologies of I am all right Jack.

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Historically, political regimes tend not to last more than a few centuries.

I’m not sure we can. Some things are so horrible, you don’t want to think about them.

  • Today’s great powers have little choice but to spend their way to political stability, which is unsustainable, and/or try to control knowledge, which is difficult.
  • Nor do we have any elder statesmen or nationally unifying figures whom everyone respects, much less agrees with. This will make our various problems worse.
  • Ownership rights mean little without a government to protect them and courts to settle disputes.
  • This world we now inhabit wasn’t always fit for human’s nothing requires it to remain so. At some point, it will develop into something else. When and how that will happen, we don’t know yet. But we know it will.
  • We haven’t even talked about climate change. Issues like climate change will create further exacerbations on conflicts, and new forms of technological and cyber warfare could threaten countries’ elections and manipulate populations.

In the last two years: 90% of the data in the world was created.

Now it is up  – technology companies large and small, industry, policy-makers, citizens and consumers alike – to use this power for good, before we run out of time. Now is the opportunity for leaders to step up into this new wave of opportunity and expectation.

We are the first generation to know we’re destroying the world, and we could be the last that can do anything about it. Our leaders are not on track to deliver. We need to ensure we hold our politicians accountable.

Food production is a major driver of wildlife extinction. We need to make wasting our resources unacceptable in all aspects of our life. We can all do more to be more conscious about what we buy, and where we buy it from.

We can and must end poverty and hunger, in all their forms and dimensions by addressing the underlying complex issues of fragility, conflict, and displacement and the looming threat of climate change.

The challenges facing the world are complex and intertwined and require complex solutions.

Another word is about to enter our collective dictionaries: permacrisis. What we do between now and 2030 will determine whether we as a collective species are intelligent or just dumm machines

Solutions to climate change and biodiversity loss won’t come from any one sector: they’ll come from governments, finance, business and civil society.

We’re analyzing satellite images but unable to see the picture that we all live on the same planet.

Like most of us, we are brought up to think in terms of countries with borders and different nationalities.

In some cases, there are natural borders formed by sea or mountains, but often borders between nations are simply abstractions, imaginary boundaries established by agreement or conflict.

How then do we explain nationalism? Why do humans separate themselves into groups and take on different national identities? Maybe different groups are helpful in terms of organisation, but that doesn’t explain why we feel different. Or why different nations compete and fight with one another.

When people are made to feel insecure and anxious, they tend to become more concerned with nationalism, status and success. Poverty and economic instability often lead to increased nationalism and to ethnic conflict.

The world in general does not have a sense of group identity.

If a terrorist’s biggest weapon is terror, climate change is going to inflict terror beyond belief.

Tsunami’s. Earthquake’s, Hurricane’s, Flood’s, War’s

We must shift 85% of the world’s energy supply to non-fossil fuel sources, not grant more oil exploration licences.  Our economies depend on healthy, supportive natural systems.

A more sustainable path is possible. But we need to rally individuals, governments, companies and communities around the world to take action with us over the next decade.

It’s impossible to override the fundamental interconnectedness of the human race.

People from all around the world need to take a stand a citizen’s movement using the NEW BEADY EYE HASHTAG:   #movebeyonditwiththebeadyeye

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THE BEADY EYE SAY’S. THEY THE TORIES ARE LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO THE BANK.

23 Sunday Oct 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., Brexit., England departure from the EU., England in five years., England's future., ENGLAND'S SNAP ELECTION, England., Inflation., The cost of the Tories., Uncategorized

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(Seven minute read)

On a annual salary of £115,000  and expenses Liz Trust lasted less than fifty days in office.

She can walk away with £19,000 in severance pay plus her expenses.

Tony Blair and John Major also received the annual salary of £115,000 pounds.

Gordon Brown £114, 800. David Cameron £111,400.

Theresa May a sitting MP can claim a parliament staffing budget of £35,000 on top of the annual  salary.

So what does it all cost?

The Gravy House of the Lords.

800 members/ peer costing £30,000 per member at a total cost of around £117.4 million.

They are entitled to £323 pounds a day just for signing into the Chamber.

Houses Of Parliament Wallpapers - Wallpaper Cave

The Poor House the Common’s.

The total spend of members of parliament was £132.5 million in the 2020-21.

The average cost of an MP was £203,880 in 2020-21, a 29.2 per cent increase.

The Royal House. Buckingham Palace.

It cost the taxpayer a mire £103 million ( 2021-22)

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The Tories are throwing away any right to claim that they are the careful custodians of the public’s money.

The inglorious history of their follies are crying out with horror at the cost, crying with laughter at the sheer stupidity of so many bad decisions. They are now making a very strong bid to be the most blunder-prone regime of the modern era.

The net cost of the bank bailouts—once you factor in money recouped by the government—was £27 billion. Separate figures from the National Audit Office (NAO) in 2018 estimated the sum spent to stabilise the banks to be £133 billion.

Most of the trade deals with non-EU countries that the UK has signed have been small in their economic effect, and have merely been “rolled over” from identical ones when we were an EU member.

The impression was that there would be no downside. We would thrive outside Europe’s bureaucracy which was strangling our companies with red tape. The huge benefits of the single market – trading freely across borders, with common standards – were never highlighted.

Two new carriers that has attracted criticism over its £6.2bn cost more than £2bn over the original estimate.

The latest estimate of the cost of HS2 has spiralled to between £72bn and £98bn.

Then came the dispute over the Northern Ireland protocol, an issue that so infuriated the EU it has refused to ratify Britain’s associate membership of the €95bn scheme.

The final cost of the Tories is that 70% of economic turnover was international before Brexit. It went from 70% to 50% to 30%,  it would be twice the size if it were not for Brexit.

Then came Covid which compounded Brexit’s disruption to British government, while Boris Johnson’s cavalier approach to leadership and to constitutional norms puts stresses and strains on all of its institutions. The books on the history of Covid-19 will show the ways in which money was blown in such spectacular style. It was a vast pyrotechnic display of borrowed moola such as we’ll surely never see repeated. Much of it, in the UK, as with other countries, was spent without apparent constraint.

Furlough – or the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, to give it a name – cost a staggering £70bn.

The fiscal year 2020-21 was the first one in which government spending in the UK surpassed a trillion pounds, reaching £1096bn. That was a one-year increase of 23.5%.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, said:

“Economic growth isn’t some academic term with no connection to the real world. It means more jobs, higher pay and more money to fund public services, like schools and the NHS.

Leave the Tories in power and the results will speak for themselves.

The north-south divide has now least 85 years.

The UK has higher levels of regional inequality than any other large wealthy country.

Levelling up like Boris it is absolutely miles away. It would cost  hundreds of billions of pounds over decades if done properly. its

Nothing more than rhetoric in a country up to its neck in Debt.

The cost of Boris Johnson’s ‘levelling up’: £2tn.

A drop in the ocean of inflation.

Boris Johnson said at the UK Battery Industrialisation Centre in Coventry that regional inequalities are an ‘outrage’

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THE BEADY EYE HAS A FEW QUESTIONS FOR YOU. OUR FINITE EARTH CANNOT FULFILL THE RESOURCES – PROFIGATE DREAMS OF SO MANY PEOPLE.

17 Saturday Sep 2022

Posted by in #whatif.com, 2022: The year we need to change., Inflation.

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Ten minute read.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE CURVE OF EARTHS TEMPERATURE INFLATIONS TAKE US FROM HERE?

Right now the scientific consensus is that the population of the world will reach a peak some time later this century. The world population is projected to reach 10.4 billion people sometime in the 2080s and remain there until 2100, according to the United Nations Population Division.A 3D illustration of a woman watching a climate change simulation of Earth.

How many people can the earth support?  What is it carrying capacity?

When it comes to carrying capacity, it’s a matter of mode of production, mode of consumption, who has access to what and how.

Not all human activities have to be environmentally costly but the future of the world population is driven by a mixture of survival and reproduction. As a result more and more countries, once they reach a certain stage of socioeconomic cultural development, tend to converge towards about two children [per couple] or fewer.

In 1679, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek, a scientist and inventor of the microscope, predicted that Earth could support 13.4 billion people.

From 1930 to 1974, the Earth‘s population doubled again, in just 44 years.

Everybody knows that environmental changes, such as pollution or disease, and climate change can increase or decrease a habitat’s carrying capacity but there is little consensus in how many Homo sapiens our planet can support.

But is the human population expected to continue growing at this rate?

Is there an upper limit to how many humans our planet can support?

Before the twentieth century no one ever lived through a doubling of the entire human population and the enormity of this and our predicament is now prevenient in climate change.

For instance, natural constraints include food scarcity and inhospitable environments.

If the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behaviour, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem. The result will be the inflationary economic paradigm itself will be the long term disaster.

If we want to affect how many people planet Earth can support, we will need to decide how many people want Jaguars with four wheels and how many want jaguars with four legs.

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Here is a broad sketch of what is in store and where we’re heading. if we don’t curtail climate change and our unchecked use of fossil fuels.

Where is Earth’s climate headed?

That depends significantly on exactly what our activity is over the next few decades.

For example, the human population can only grow so large and can only have so many carbon-emitting activities; and pollution will eventually degrade the environment. At some point in the future, carbon output will reach a maximum limit.

In the worst cases, the researchers found that Earth’s climate leads to chaos. True, mathematical chaos. In a chaotic system, there is no equilibrium and no repeatable patterns. A chaotic climate would have seasons that change wildly from decade to decade (or even year to year). Above a certain critical threshold temperature for Earth’s atmosphere, a feedback cycle can kick in where a chaotic result would become unavoidable. There are some signs that we may have already passed that tipping point, but it’s not too late to avert climate disaster.

We are now entering a new phase, one driven by human activity. As humans pump more carbon into the atmosphere, we are creating a new Anthropocene era, a period of human-influenced climate systems, something our planet has never experienced before.

We will see mass migration, with one war after another for resources.

Animals can keep giving birth, increasing their numbers, but they reach a limit when they consume all the food in their environment (or their predators get too hungry and consume them). Put another way, climate change impacts might not directly cause humans to go extinct, but it could lead to events that seriously endanger hundreds of millions, if not billions, of lives.

There’s no reason to exaggerate the climate threat. The truth is bad enough, and reason enough to take dramatic action because today, we live in a global, interconnected civilization, so there’s is every reason to believe our species will not survive its collapse.

Despite massive landscapes and endless blue, our planet is limited in its resources and capabilities to support its inhabitants. According to the Global Footprint Network, “Humanity uses the equivalent of 1.5 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste.

It now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate what we use in a year.

All over the world we are witnessing the effects of using more resources than the Earth can provide in the form of diminishing forest cover, disappearing coral reefs, collapsing fisheries, biodiversity decline, increasing greenhouse gases, depleting fresh water systems, acidifying oceans, disease, famine, mass migrations, depleting arable land, resource conflicts and wars, just to name some of the more noticeable effects.

So we are left to cope with limited resources or pursue unconventional methods, which can create a disproportionate impact on the poor, and the ones that can are finding that even the furthest and deepest corners of the Earth are being exploited, leaving fewer and fewer resources for future generations.

A sustainable future cannot be achieved without conserving biological diversity – animal and plant species, their habitats and their genes – not only for nature itself, but also for all  people who depend on.

Our moral obligation is to support both ourselves and our planet. it.

Our old solutions – which address only environmental conservation or short-term human gains – are no longer enough.

We need innovative approaches to guide our civilization toward a sustainable future and the only way this can be done  this requires a substantial behavioural modification of the most impactful species on Earth—humans.

I think it is becoming increasingly important for us to be conscious of our consumption. If we can see through products on the shelves, and understand that human labour, sacrifice and resources have gone into anything and everything we consume, we can begin to empathize with and work for the well-being of populations around the world.

Technology is distancing our relationship from global issues, often perceived as too large to concern our own respective lives.

How can we begin this personalization in the midst of a global crisis of endless dimensions and stakeholders?

We can begin by making profit seeking algorithms be transparent. By removing all media advertising that prompts consumption. By focused efforts and productivity within our own communities. By fostering the rights and access to medical care universally.

Finally. Government should enable individuals to see their own capabilities in organizing and protecting the environment, instead of simply reporting on the problems. Media coverage, literature, and written discussion in any capacity should lean towards a definitive—within scientific bounds—attribution of our existing catastrophes to our own actions. We must try to stray from merely stating that a given problem exists, and rather begin our discussions and postulations with the probable causes of that problem.

By getting communities, urban or rural, to visualize and feel the influence of their actions on water, soil, and air would be to enliven a group solely based on protecting and preserving life itself. We must work to re-associate with the resources of the environment that have long been exploited, and communicate across a global spectrum regarding how we have and will succeed in creating a sustainable future existence.

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A photo of a male Neanderthal replicate at the​ Natural​ History​ Museum, London.

THE BEADY EYE LOOKS AT INFLATION

05 Monday Sep 2022

Posted by in Inflation., Uncategorized

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What is inflation?

One can look or think of it in various ways, as it comes in many forms.

The fact is that inflation is a far more complex phenomenon than one might initially assume.

The Big Bang for instance was it caused by inflation?

Did it happen at the begging or the end of something inflating externally or internally.

If it was external it could only have happened on a quantum bases – which means that there was something there before the Big bang that existed other than eternal inflation.

Whether it did or not, during inflation space is repelling space, so there is more space and more repulsion. Pass events cause present events are ever changing is a quantum fluctuation.

The defining characteristic of inflation is its exponential rate of growth.

All inflation whether its space, money, planetary resource use, or the human population, doubles in every fixed interval of time.

It starts slowly, almost flat and then goes up and up till vertical, hitting a material limit.

This is not so in space where it can go on endlessly, according to Einstein theory of relativity.

Indeed it is faster then light, but with the help of gravity it is slowed down as it passes through different density of the universe.

However this is not true in the Quantum world of particles and antimatter which can burst out of nothing, coming back together and disappearing in a flash.

This will be the reason that the James Webb telescope will not discover God.

Unfortunate due to inflation it is looking into the past with the future always over the horizon. Beyond that we have no way now or ever finding data.  Here we reach the limits of language and are faced with the choice of mathematics or myth. 

Thank God. 

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There are zillions of particles popping out of the vacuum of space and disappearing.

Indeed they don’t even come into existence unless they are observed.

However the real question is how does energy turn into particles. What is the actual process of inflation doing. I dont think we know.

Where did it come from in the first place, converting its expansion into Entropy – disorder.

All ordinary matter is however, everything made of atoms including the protons and neutrons that make up an atom. So it stands to reason that inflation after the Big Bang was caused by atoms that were there before inflation existed, in a dormant state.

This then leaves us with no way to explain why individual quantum events happen – they have no cause, but they do happen is standard physics, creating an eternal inflation of creativity.

We can only rely on predictions because probability obeys deterministic laws.

In the end there is no deeper source of meaning for us than to experience our own lives as reflecting the nature and origin of our universe.

For those who demand the Ultimate truth there is no way to take even a single step beyond what other people have already thought.

Lets return to earth.

At its most basic level, inflation is a general increase in prices across the economy and is well-known to all of us. This can lead to fears of possible hyperinflation, a devastating scenario in which inflation rises rapidly out of control or Stagflation (a time of economic stagnation combined with inflation) which also wreak havoc.

Although numerous theories exist, arguably the two most influential schools of thought on inflation are those of Keynesian and Monetarist economics.

Keynesian economists argue inflation results from economic pressures such as the increased cost of production and look to government intervention as a solution; monetarist economists believe inflation stems from the expansion of the money supply and that central banks should maintain stable growth for the money supply in line with GDP

The Keynesian school believes inflation results from economic pressures such as rising costs of production or increases in aggregate demand. Specifically, they distinguish between two broad types of inflation: cost-push inflation and demand-pull inflation.

The Monetarist view is perfectly encapsulated by Friedman’s remark that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” According to this view, the principal factor underlying inflation has little to do with things like labour, materials costs, or consumer demand. Instead, it is all about the supply of money.

According to the quantity theory of money, if the amount of money in an economy doubles, all else equal, price levels will also double.

This means that the consumer will pay twice as much for the same amount of goods and services. This increase in price levels will eventually result in a rising inflation level.

Then you have negative inflation when prices drop for various reasons.

What are the Causes of Inflation. 

What causes inflation is significantly complex.

An increase in the supply of money is the root of inflation, though this can play out through different mechanisms in the economy. A country’s money supply can be increased by the monetary authorities by:

  • Printing and giving away more money to citizens.
  • Legally devaluing (reducing the value of) the legal tender currency.
  • Loaning new money into existence as reserve account credits through the banking system by purchasing government bonds from banks on the secondary market (the most common method)

Now I am no quantum expert or scientist but to my mind the world economy is now dependent on electronic products, all subject to the Quantum theory.

Smart phones, laptops, computers, and algorithms all fuelling inflation of knowledge and falsehoods.  The world of computing is full of buzzwords: AI, supercomputers, machine learning, the cloud, quantum computing and more.

One word in particular is used throughout computing – algorithm.

Computers string algorithms together in complex fashions to produce more algorithms. So, an algorithm is the process a computer uses to transform input data into output data. Every piece of technology that you touch involves many algorithms.

They are black boxes—neither the company using them nor the people making them take responsibility for how they can wreck lives and reinforce stereotypes.

There is no knowledge of what they are even being judged on.

The people making the algorithms don’t take responsibility for users of their code and the people using algorithms place responsibility on the creators.

Algorithms are aimed at optimizing everything including inflation.  

They, that is profit seeking algorithms have put too much control in the hands of corporations and governments, perpetuate bias, create filter bubbles, cut choices, creativity and serendipity, and could result in greater unemployment and are no doubt at this very moment manipulating inflation.

The question now is are we living in two realities because they coexist with all advances in technology. In fact, everything people see and do on the web is a product of algorithms.

The use of algorithms is spreading as massive amounts of data are being created, captured and analysed by businesses and governments. Some are calling this the Age of Algorithms and predicting that the future of algorithms is tied to machine learning and deep learning that will get better and better at an ever-faster pace.

They will create new ways to misrepresent reality and perpetuate falsehoods.

Can anything be done to stop them plundering the world for short term profit?

Yes but it has to done now.

The adoption of data-driven technology affects every aspect of our society and its use is creating opportunities as well as new ethical challenges that are coming with climate change.

In the world before AI there were many different concepts of fairness. Once we introduce complex algorithms to decision-making systems, that range of definitions multiplies rapidly.

Inequality and unfairness have complex causes but society may reasonably conclude that justice requires decision-making processes to be designed so that human judgement can intervene where needed to achieve fair and reasonable outcomes for each person, informed by individual evidence.

The risk is growing as algorithms, and the datasets that feed them, become increasingly complex.

All algorithms programs should be vetted for ownership, transparency, bias, before being allowed to operate in a sustainable way.

Don’t worry you will always be around because each of us is an atomic pastiche an atom of you will always be around.

We are made of material created and ejected into the Galaxy by stars.

Try inflating that!

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