Category Archives: England EU Referendum IN or Out.

THE BEADY EYE ASK’S. WHAT EFFECTS IF ANY SHOULD BREXIT HAVE ON THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS IN MARCH.

13 Sunday Jan 2019

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., European Union., Modern day life., Our Common Values., Post - truth politics., Reality., Social Media, The common good., The Euro, Transition period or Implication period., Unanswered Questions., What needs to change in European Union.

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( Twelve-minute read)

The Brexit referendum has and is demonstrating that the EU is not an irrevocable project.

It is now an internal power struggle while the EU _was_ an attempt to ensure peace and prosperity over the west part of the continent instead of the “costly” wars and colonial economics.

However, as the days go bye it is becoming more and more apparent that the EU is not for the people of Europe as a whole.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of european union elections"

Brexit for all its reasons is an example that is now shining a light on the forthcoming European Elections. Especially on the pros and cons of is there a future as separated national states or the Union.

Why?

Because Brexit’s main players have failed to comprehend the true significance of the European Union, bringer of peace.

Probably they intentionally refused to understand it in order to carry forth their destructive policies without qualms, hoping to reap the fruits in national elections.

But what is actually happening is that it is bringing England and their voters into a state of isolation, coupled with political and economic problems that are currently afflicting the United Kingdom it might be no longer a Union.

There is no doubting that Brexit will negatively affect the European Union, and its Member States, and its citizens, but the EU will be compensated by having gotten rid of a reluctant member that constantly hindered every effort aimed at the necessary, logical development of the integration process.

This is no fault of the in or out voters, rather it is playing out the falsehoods spread by Social media that appeal to nationalism rules & will, which in the current set up of the European Union will trump the forced solidarity of Brussels. 

No one can “force solidarity” upon you. Nor can a currency forge deeper integration. 

Only collective suicide can do so.

So are the up and coming elections going to deeper disunity than unity?

The results of the European elections will constitute the grounds for the renewal of EU institutions and of its leadership. It then remains to be seen to what extent Europeans would have a political interest in mitigating the psychological impact of this Brexit chaos on European citizens.

At the end of all this madness, what is the EU going to look like?

On May 23 to 26 the citizens of 27 Member States will be called to renew the European Parliament. Then it is the turn of the formation of the new EU Commission. A busy timetable marked by growing anti-European movements and by the possibility of citizens’ mobilization.

If England requests an extension of article 50 it will extend into the period of Europes own elections thus linking the absurd ongoing spectacle in the British Parliament- which will lead to all of us witnessing the consequences of anti-European, nationalistic propaganda based on lies and slander against the European project.

So Europe will be in a quandary.

It cannot be seen unwilling to offer an extension, nor can it risk a Brexit bush fire by an extension of  Article 50 over four months. 

The current crisis that Europeans are both observing and undergoing is nothing but the readjustment of a project that no longer serves the needs of the day properly, and therefore needs renovation.

The last thing it needs is squabbling noncooperative English second peoples referendum or general election influencing its own elections which will have more than ample pitfalls of their own. 

The Union is a rule-based union > if it is perceived to modify its rules without open democratic transparency it can only blame itself for its disintegration.

The Union might be only sixty odd years old but its history of breaking rules.

A confederation is based on trickle-down authority. The ultimate power lies in the individual states. It has no effective powers to prevent its own member states from violating its core values of respect for democracy, fundamental rights, and the rule of law.

Take Hungary, for example. Here is a member state casually flouting basic democratic norms and human rights, swiftly evolving into an authoritarian nightmare, with absolutely no meaningful consequences. The country’s parliament has not just passed a law making claims for asylum almost impossible:

Take Poland, for example. Authoritarian Poland is making an utter mockery of the EU’s stated commitment to democracy and human rights.

Defining appropriate institutions to regulate and mediate between economic and social forces is a global and not just European challenge, but its achievement may appear too far out of reach.

The EU is buffeted by multiple crises, from Brexit to the assumption of power of a Eurosceptic Italian government.

But its acceptance of its own member states succumbing to authoritarianism may prove its greatest existential threat of all.

One of the biggest problems with the EU is not how the politicians are “elected”, but how can you get rid of them when they fail to perform.

For many reasons, (addressed in previous posts) I think the EU project is fundamentally flawed.  That those who “run” the EU are not subjected to a democratic election is scandalous.

Integration is what has given Europe its strength in economic globalization, and this integration will play a huge part in Europe’s survival in the age of political globalization. They cannot be tarnished by concession to England just for the sake of the Market.

Closer integration will have to include services but also the huge market for training and skills. It will comprise an energy union, just as it will have to comprise a proper “market” for people. This market will include not just the now-endangered EU principle of free movement in the EU. It will also include its flip side, a properly regulated shared “market” for immigrants.

What seems impossible today will have to come, no matter how much nationalist sentiments stand against it.

The EU serves a purpose, and its workings and its setup will have to be adapted as this purpose changes. Again and again.

How can this be achieved?

Fundamentally, the EU either serves the needs of the day or it gets into a crisis.

A more open decision-making process might have a positive effect on public interest in democracy at the EU level but it will not unity because it is becoming more and more evident that the single market with all its rules is more important than the citizens.

The dominant dividing line of the new parliament will become a contest between politicians who want to find common EU-level solutions to current challenges and those who favour safeguarding and reaffirming national sovereignty.

So I predict a Europe in which values will be handled closer to the lowest common denominator than to the great ideals that Europe wants to stand for.

This will be a source of never-ending tension, but it will prove less costly than becoming divided over maximalist morals only to lose out in the harsh world of political globalization.

The peoples of Europe will no longer integrate because they feel love for the idea of an integrated Europe—if ever they did. Integration will come only when the pain is really massive. And it is massive only in some policy fields, not in all. And it will remain so until the European Union affords a direct opportunity to its citizens to invest in EU that brings a reward with that investment. ( See the previous Post)

The politics of fear by building electoral platforms based on liberal principles, pointing out the big challenges surrounding technology and climate change, and showing that migration is just one issue among many.

There is no real hope for EU federalists because the Union relies on a global order that the Europeans are unable to guarantee. The direction of integration is more diffuse now than in the past.

However, the quest for political order on a planet that has outgrown its merely regional structure might have the chance to make a difference.

So with the European elections this time it’s not enough to hope for a better future: this time each and every one of us must take responsibility for it too.

Artificial intelligence has been confined to the lab for so long that it is hard sometimes to recognise that it is now an actual technology that we use without thinking. The EU is right to try to harness it.

Voting, on the other hand, has not been around for a long time, it now needs more thinking than ever.

After a woeful five years, this is perhaps last chance for the EU to prove it can regain the initiative. The stakes have never been higher, and the EU needs someone who is confident, can communicate and represents the people.

The EU needs a serious person at the helm, and it cannot afford to leave the choice to an obscure process that has so far failed to find the best person for the job.

The ‘technocratic’ rhetoric of economists and central bankers convinced most people that there is no feasible alternative to (financial) market logic, to fiscal austerity, low wages, flexible labour markets and independent central banks.

This way, establishment economics has constrained (and continues to constrain) political choices, stripping electorates of their autonomy in political and moral judgement.

This is a dangerous game since the only way disenfranchised electorates can express their anger, anxiety and powerlessness is by choosing self-defined. Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of european fascism"

The tragedy of Brexit powered by Farage & all doesn’t have any real solutions.

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THE BEADY EYE SAY’S ITS TIME TO TELL THE TRUTH AS TO WHY ENGLAND IS LEAVING THE EU.

10 Thursday Jan 2019

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., Life., Modern Day Democracy., Norther Ireland, Northern Ireland Border., Our Common Values., Populism., Post - truth politics., Reality., Social Media, The common good., The Obvious., Unanswered Questions., WHAT IS TRUTH

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(Twelve-minute read)

This truth has been with us from the dawn of humanity.

The inability to share leads to most world problems.

Inequality.

With the ability to share truth and untruths through social media right now, it’s difficult to know what to trust or who to trust.

Are we seeing a return to protectionism or the redefining of capitalism, to sustainability before profit?

There is one certainty Social media is having an effect on where power and how power is used giving rise to Popolusim contra Eliatilism.

So I think it is time to be a bit more honest and plain-speaking about the circumstances that have led to Brexit.

Politics and the media are being pushed to the limit by advancements in technology and uncertainty about the future.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of the truth in the future"

Misinformation is spreading.

When it comes to Brexit, we have reached the point where, to an extraordinary extent, the implementation of the 2016 referendum result trumps all else. But as we approach the departure date all statements about British politics should be assumed to include to the word “probably”

If it will happen when it will happen.

For the most part, the debate about Brexit since the 2016 referendum has been framed primarily in economic terms but it is my contention that Brexit, whether it happens or not, is now showing that the EU never was the problem. 

The problem is fixing Britain’s relationship with itself.

The irony is that the country that was least affected by the migration crisis is the one where we are now seeing the most consequential political backlash.

Those who promise that leaving the EU will deliver “control” are really promising something quite specific: a social and cultural reboot.

Of course, this is a complete impossibility. We live in a world defined by the economic, social and cultural interdependence of nation states.

Take back control” was indeed the slogan of the Leave campaign, but it was “control” with one purpose, above all others, the relationship between taxation and public spending and immigration.

A wealthy nation is essential both to the aspirations of individual households and the funding of public services. Unfortunately, England is now reaping the rewards of putting the economy before its people.

Of selling most of its assets, of investing in a world image of power when in fact its people were on the streets due to lack of social housing, were lying in hospital corridors due to lack of funding, were relying on food banks due to lack of decent wages, were running up personal debts, were educated for the market place.

These are now the gravitational centre of the whole debate:

Britain’s act of masochism in leaving the EU will create a country that is unpopular, self-hating and insecure about its identity.

There will be no game-changing trade deals.

It is better that they draw this conclusion today rather than in 2040 after a period of harsh isolation in the middle of the North Sea.

The British people (and particularly the English), who have been in search of their identity since 1945, might finally recognize that it lies not in the distant past (Empire/Commonwealth), nor in the recent past (“special relationship” with the US) but in the future.

The only sensible course, therefore, is to suspend Article 50 and request a return to the status quo ante.

This could be done following a proper constitutional process, meaning a parliamentary vote. Britain can unilaterally revoke Article 50 and therefore freeze the process of leaving the EU.

Britain can write a letter to the EU and state that it wants to freeze its withdrawal process, and that’s what it takes to get yourself off the default path towards crashing out.

However, this process cannot be used just to pause the process and regroup.

In order to pause the process and regroup, the U.K. would need to have the consent of all the other EU members.

If it were just a request to say, oh, we’ve really lost our mind, we don’t quite know what to do, it’s very unlikely that the other 27 members would say, oh, yeah, sure, fine, let’s do that.

Then we come to the Backstop re Northern Ireland;

Northern Ireland wants some legally binding assurances that the U.K. will be able to get out of it unilaterally.

The probability of EU leaders conceding this is zero. And it’s zero today. And it’s zero down the road.

The EU’s position has been very much: This is—this is not negotiable. And, frankly, they all know that you know, a number of EU members are unhappy with the terms of the withdrawal agreement. And if it were to be reopened, it would be a whole can of worms with a lot of, you know, different asks being put on the table.

So this is just not going to happen without the backstop becoming the front stop.

The priority list in continental Europe, with coming elections you know, Brexit isn’t the first thing, or the second thing, or the third thing; it’s somewhere after that.

The disasters to befall the EU27 won’t have befallen them. They will, instead, have continued to evolve their community, grow their economy, taken heed of lessons played out across the Channel, made things better.

Does any of this matter?

Because London is fine, Westminster and the BBC will say Britain is fine. This is no longer so, there is a much uglier reality and one that has little to do with GDP.

If London loses its financial clout there will be a fundamental change to the British economy that Britain now needs to cycle through before it can clarify where it wants to end up with in this Brexit process.

Brexit is both symptom and cause of a breakdown in this consensus.

This needs to be understood outside the day-to-day disasters of the Brexit process itself.

The NHS won’t have fixed itself. Nor will social care. Nor pension problem. Nor it’s out of date infrastructure.

So low and behold we now see department ministers promising funds to fix the NHS etc. However, Brexit will be a suffocating error when it comes to finding these funds. A poorer U.K. outside the EU will be less useful both as a military ally and as a diplomatic partner or as a trading partner.

There could be one unanticipated positive outcome.

The conventional politics of “left versus right” no longer apply:

The political party that can transcend party lines and speak to people across the ideological spectrum will be the rising voice in the next 10 years.

It is unlikely that either of the main political parties in England will survive in their current forms, given the pressures their internal coalitions are already under.

It does not take a nitwit that global we are witnessed the highest number of global battle deaths for 25 years, persistently high levels of terrorism, and the highest number of refugees and displaced people since World War II.

If this is not observable we are left with “the essence of bullshit: a complete lack of concern with truth” and “an indifference to how things really are.”

All one has to do is turn on your TV.  Who can tell what infringements to our civil liberties will have been introduced in the name of keeping us safe? What new walls will be built?

The important thing is not that what he says is true, but that it persuades. and by then none of us will have recourse to Europe to stave them off, either?

Luckily there is no such thing as an average human being.

Nonetheless, that fictional construct is precisely what businesses use to explain human behaviour, reducing us to mere consumers.

There are however those who navigate the currents of uncertainty and change without the need for any particular dogma or orthodoxy to guide them. These are the innovators, thinkers, misfits, activists, artists, and creators who can be found on the fringes of any walk of life, nipping at the hem of hegemonic power, disrupting the status quo, and bravely embracing the unknown.

The future belongs to these voices, not to a world where the truth has become so malleable and subjective as to be almost meaningless as a concept. 

It also belongs to those brave enough to stand up to bullshit in some of its most vaunted forms. There is some hope for this.  

The fine line between the present and the future never looked so blurry.

However, the truth has to persist unaffected, in the past, in the present and in the future.

The next victims of social media will be based on media trends.

What is left when you take away all the ads and the packaging of Brexit is the truth of the product –

Wake up England and stop being the sulking wanting to leave the room when you still have the chance to influence the creation of a Europe, whole, free and at peace.

Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of the truth in the future"
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The UK National Debt is estimated to be £1.84 trillion.

Uk Defence spending is budgeted to be £48.3 billion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A quick examination of the numbers reveals that the world continues to spend vastly disproportionate resources on creating and containing violence compared to what it spends on peace.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

how you design the ballot would have a material impact on how it turned out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE BEADY EYE LOOK’S AT WHAT ENGLAND WILL LOOK LIKE IN A YEAR.

30 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., England., European Union., Norther Ireland, Northern Ireland Border., Populism., Post - truth politics., The Obvious., Unanswered Questions.

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(Two-minute read)

THIS IS WHAT ENGLAND WILL BE LIKE WHETHER IT LEAVES THE EU OR NOT.

Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of england in the future"

After an entirely voluntary act of self-harm England will have lost its European identity with no obvious solutions. No longer a global economy it will struggle to be heard in the United Nations World, not to mention in the USA.

Struggling to make ends meet we will see a country that is not only insecure about its place in the world but struggling with its internal identity not to mention it’s past.

There will be no game-changing world trade deals to deal with its loss of revenue to allow a proper restructuring of funding of its infrastructure. 

London as Corporate England (which sets its own rules) will carry on, powered as ever by its own brand equity with sterling strengthen due to the race to the bottom of corporate and other taxes.

With a deepening sense of nationalism or isolationism, English politics will feed on the helplessness of the old parties, driving the youth of the country to become activism, leading to civil unrest.

All of which will strengthen the perception of a liquid world with populist solutions.

The conservative party will split with a new populist political party promoting coexistence, appreciation of diversity, liberal pluralistic democracy freedom of speech, and internationalism.

As with the Eu if opportunity and wealth are not seen to be distributed evenly populist will sweep everything in its path, becoming more anxiety driven, angrier.

( BOTH ENGLAND AND THE EU NEED TO PURSUE AN ECONOMIC POLICY THAT DEFENDS CAPITALISM AND FREE TRADE BUT ENSURES THAT THE BENEFITS OF THIS SYSTEM REACH THE MAJORITY OF THE THE POPULATION.

THEY BOTH NEED TO DEFEND A SOCIETY THAT IS BOTH FAIR AND MULTI-ETHNIC WHICH MEANS DOMESTICATING NATIONALISM BY BROADENING THE BONDS AND SOLIDARITY BEYOND THE PERSON THE FAMILY OR ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS TIES.)

Populism will make decisions on reform that the euro area needs to ensure sustainability almost impossible to achieve.

Relationship with Ireland will start to show signs of strain over the border and fishing.

Northern Ireland will be in turmoil with a pending vote on Unity with Southern Ireland.

Wales and Scotland will still be shackled as whimpering serfs to the throne.

The cost of living will increase. The huge cost of maintaining naval and military power will come under severe criticism against the cost of the NHS and social care.

The EU will stay an integrated economic area even it fails to survive in its present form.

BOTH ECONOMIES EU AND UK WILL NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH except for the pace of growth.

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THE BEADY ASK’S: DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT AGREE TO.

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., Democracy, England EU Referendum IN or Out., Gibraltar and Spain, Norther Ireland, Northern Ireland Border., Politics., The common good., The Obvious., Unanswered Questions., Uncategorized

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( A three-minute read)

My recent Beady Eye post attempted to explain the origins of the Northern Ireland border.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of the good friday agreement"

THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT ATTEMPTS TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEM.

Up to the Good Friday agreement Northern Ireland was in effect a one-party state, in which half of the population was routinely discriminated against.

The agreement marked a commitment to “the mutual respect, the civil rights and the religious liberties of everyone with Britain agreed to incorporate the European Convention of Human Rights into the law of Northern Ireland.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of The Belfast Agreement, more commonly known as The Good Friday Agreement.

SIGNED ON THE 10th April 1998. It effectively brought an end to The Troubles, which had raged in the region for thirty years. It was widely seen in Britain, as elsewhere, as a significant act of statesmanship, supported by both main parties.

A devolved assembly was established for both sides to govern together and while unionists were assured of their British identity, a united Ireland was acknowledged as a legitimate political goal for Republicans.

As the Irish border is becoming a critical issue in the Brexit negotiations, it now appears at risk.

CONDEMNING THE AGREEMENT TO THE POLITICAL SHREDDER.

Some 71 percent of people in Northern Ireland voted to accept the agreement in a referendum, with the DUP (NOW BRIBING THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY TO THE TUNE OF 6 BILLION TO REMAIN IN POWER) being the only party to reject it.

The system of power-sharing government it established in Northern Ireland has not functioned for over a year.

However, the collective failure in Northern Ireland will not be blamed just on Brexit nor on the DUP but on the EU if it agrees to any border visible or otherwise.

The harder the border between north and south, the more reckless the UK’s decision to leave the EU will be judged.

A significant amount of direct funding is at stake: the EU provides Northern Ireland with nearly a billion euros a year for agriculture, employment, and projects related to the peace process.

Of course, no one talks about the other border between Gibraltar and Spain where British territory also has a historic claim placed on it by a foreign power, namely Spain.

It will “make the Irish problem look like a picnic”.

96 percent of Gibraltarians voted to Remain in 2016.

Of course there are differences between Northern Ireland and Gibraltar, obviously, based on geography, economics, and history. Gibraltar isn’t in the UK, but as a close overseas dependent territory, it may as well be.

The EU has given Spain a formal veto over Brexit if Madrid is not happy with the Gibraltar dimensions of a Brexit deal. The Irish didn’t get that.

Gibraltar could easily be treated much like other EU microstates such as Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, and Andorra; EU members in all but name, albeit with no formal voting powers.

SO WHY NOT NORTHERN IRELAND?

GIBRALTAR REPRESENTS one tiny strip of land, two vetoes and three governments trying to achieve the impossible WHILE NORTHERN IRELAND REPRESENTS A HISTORICAL DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN AGAIN.

Makes you wonder if all this collateral damage TO ALL CONCERNED is worth it.

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THE BEADY EYE SAY’S: THIS COULD BE A GOOD TIME TO REMIND IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND AND ENGLAND WHY THE BORDER BETWEEN IRELAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND EXISTS.

08 Saturday Sep 2018

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., European Commission., European Union., Fake News., Norther Ireland, Northern Ireland Border., Politics., Post - truth politics., The Irish/ Northern Ireland border., The Obvious., Unanswered Questions.

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( A six to seven-minute read)

THIS IS MY HISTORICAL UNDERSTANDING.

CORRECT ME IF I AM WRONG.

In October 1921 Lord George convened a conference in London in which he and other leading statesmen of Britain met with Irish envoys of the De Valera’s Irish Government.

The resulting treaty signed on the 6 of December recognized the Free State of Ireland as a dominion with full powers of self-government and determination but leaving England the control of certain harbors for purposes of defense.

This treaty which created the Irish Free State had a clause which ensured that Northern Ireland could opt out of the deal – which they did.

SO THE DEMAND FOR AN OUT AND OUT REPUBLIC WAS DROPPED AND THE RIGHT TO MAINTAIN ITS OWN EXCLUSION FROM IRELAND WAS ADMITTED FOR THE UNIT OF SIX COUNTIES CALLED ULSTER WHICH IS NOW CALLED NORTHERN IRELAND.

IN FACT, ULSTER HAD ALREADY VOTED ITSELF OUT OF A UNITED IRELAND AND THOUGH PROVISION WAS MADE FOR RE-UNION UNDER ONE PARLIAMENT AT SOME FUTURE DATE IT WAS A DATE NONE COULD FORESEE.

When De Valera was presented with the terms of the treaty he opposed it however it was ratified on the 7th Jan 1922 by 64 votes to 57.

De Valera resigned and a civil war commenced from the 28 June 1922 – 24 May 1923. This conflict followed the Irish War of Independence and accompanied the establishment of the Irish Free State, an entity independent from the United Kingdom but within the British Empire.

Northern Ireland was created as a separate legal entity on 3 May 1921 resulting in Ireland partitioned into two states with six of the nine counties of the Province of Ulster remaining in the United Kingdom.

The Unionist politicians to this day refer to Northern Ireland as Ulster which it is not.

Any historical record will show that it is an organized plantation by Great Britain which was begun in 1609. The colonization of Ulster had been proposed since the end of the Nine-year war to reward Scottish subjects loyal to King James with land.

IT LEAD TO THE NATIVE IRISH LOSING THEIR LAND AND TO ETHIC AND SECTARIAN CONFLICT WE HAVE WITTINESS TO THIS DAY.

WHERE ARE WE TODAY.

WITH NORTHERN IRELAND NOW ON THE VERGE OF A NEW WORLD RECORD – FOR NO GOVERNMENT.

The only Brexit supporters are the Democratic Unionists – who opposed marriage equality, opposed language rights and the funding of inquests to victims of the conflict.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of the irish border after brexit"

AFTER DECADES OF REPUGNANT VIOLENCE ON BOTH SIDE THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT OF TWENTY YEARS AGO DEFERRING MAJOR ISSUES.

THE NEED FOR A VISIBLE BORDER FOR ALL INITIATIVE PURPOSED WAS REMOVED.

HOWEVER, THE CONTINUING INFLICTED HISTORICAL AFTER MATE OF PARTITION HAS NOT COME TO AN END OR HAS IT WITH THE ADVENT OF BREXIT.

The tenuous foundation of the Good Friday agreement is now once more putting the question of reunification back on the agenda.

Why?

Because Northern Ireland vote to stay in the European Union.

THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT UNFORTUNATELY REINFORCES THE UNDERLYING SECTARIANISM THAT EXISTS IN AS MUCH AS IT DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SOURCE OF THE BORDER.  ALTHOUGH IT ACKNOWLEDGES THE CONTINUING AND EQUALLY LEGITIMATE POLITICAL ASPERATIONS OF EACH SIDE AND ALLOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF A REFERENDUM IF THE MAJORITIES IN NORTHERN IRELAND AND IRELAND WANT IT. Brexit is now creating its own type of limbo.

WITH THE IDENTITY ISSUES REOPENING THE BORDER  Neither Unionists or Nationalists are preparing their constituencies for a compromise. This position is profoundly undemocratic. 

The Good Friday agreement belongs only to the people of Ireland north and south – it is not a Tory Brexiteer bargaining chip.

Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of the irish border after brexit"

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For the first time after seven centuries of British rule

 

THE BEADY EYE SAY’S: HERE IS WHAT WE ALL HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO ON THE 29TH MARCH 2019.

08 Wednesday Aug 2018

Posted by in Articular 50., Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., England., Our Common Values., Politics., Populism., Technology, The common good., The Obvious., Trade Agreements., Transition period or Implication period., Unanswered Questions., What needs to change in European Union.

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( A FIVE MINUTE READ)

DEAL OR NO DEAL BREXIT HAPPENS AT 11PM UK TIME ON FRIDAY 29 MARCH 2019.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of brexit"

WHAT WILL HAPPEN THEN?

As it has never been done before, I predict chaos, LEADING TO ONE OF THE BIGGEST POLITICAL COCK-UPS EVER WITNESS.

JUST LISTEN TO THE LEADER OF UKIP A WEEK OR SO AGO TELLING THE EU THAT IT WAS CREATED BY THE NAZIS.

I AM ALL IN FAVOR OF FREEDOM OF SPEECH.  LONG MAY HE CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS OF A DEAL ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHER IMBECILES WHO SHOULD HAVE THEIR EU PENSIONS CANCELLED.

So it would be more than naive to think that all will be honky dory after the 29th March next year.

JUST THINK how the implication of UK or EU citizens will be handled – recent arrivals. 

Will either have the same rights as those who came before?

What will the result of the house of commons and lords vote be on the deal?

The original referendum to leave is not legally binding and any withdrawal agreements will have to ratified by the UK Parliament.

Then there is the question of Subsidies.  An average of 55% of farm income comes from the EU’s reviled common agriculture policy – known as the CAP – and its subsidies. Losing these will cut swaths through agriculture and the landscape. The amount of its food that Britain grows is currently 60% and falling – in a world with ever more insecure food supplies: we are nine meals from empty supermarket shelves. Farming is small but with food processing makes up 13% of GDP, an industry bigger than cars and aerospace put together.

Then there is the question of visa-free travel.

The current EHIC card will become useless.

AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO NEW MECHANISM FOR SETTLING DISPUTES

WHAT WILL HAPPEN INSIDE THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS WHICH IS NOT AN EU INSTITUTION.

GET THE TWENTY-SEVEN REMAINING COUNTRIES TO AGREE TO A DEAL NEVER MIND RATIFY IT WHILE THEIR ECONOMIES ARE LOCKED INTO THE EURO, AND RUN MORE AND MORE BY ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE –  IS PIE IN THE SKY.

THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE SOLUTION IF STERLING IS TO STAY FREE – NO DEAL – TRANSITION  YES.

ALL OF THIS IS ONLY THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG.

I CLOSE OFF THIS POST WITH THESE THOUGHTS.

THERE IS NO PLAUSIBLE WAY TO GET FROM A NO DEAL TO CANCELLING BREXIT – AS THE EU WOULD HAVE TO AGREE ON WILLINGNESS TO DO SO.

ONE WAY OR THE OTHER NEW UK ELECTIONS WILL FOLLOW ADMID WORSENING MAYHEM AND GOVERNMENTAL PARALYSIS.

THERE WILL NEVER BE A COMMON RULE BOOK AFTER BRITAIN HAS LEFT.

WHY? BECAUSE THE UK WILL HAVE NO PART IN AMENDING ANY RULES.

God only knows what the financial costs will be as the break up will go on for years with all calculations subject to exchange rates.

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THE BEADY EYE SAY’S: THE BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS​ HAVE LITTLE TO DO WITH LOOKING AFTER UK CITIZENS.

24 Tuesday Jul 2018

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, Post - truth politics., The common good., Trade Agreements., Transition period or Implication period., Unanswered Questions.

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( A THREE MINUTE READ)

The UK has consistently armed many of the most brutal and authoritarian regimes in the world.

WITH IT’S RECENT BREXIT RHETORIC IT WOULD NOW APPEAR THAT IT CAN’T WAIT TO OPT OUT OF THE EU NATIONAL ARMS EXPORT LICENSING CRITERIA. Résultat de recherche d'images pour "PICTURES OF THE NEW BREXIT MINISTER"

UK arms manufacturers have exported almost £5bn worth of weapons to countries that are judged to have repressive regimes in the 22 months since the Conservative party won the last election. Out of 49 countries that are classed as “not free” by Freedom House, the independent organization that promotes democracy, 36 have bought British-made weapons under the current government.

Even when Saudi’s massive order book is stripped out, arms exports to repressive regimes have almost doubled since the Tory government was elected: orders to such countries, excluding Saudi, amount to almost £1.2bn, compared with £680m in the 22 months before the election.

Following the referendum on leaving the European Union, the Defence & Security Organisation, the government body that promotes arms manufacturers to overseas buyers, was moved from UK Trade & Investment to the Department for International Trade.

SETTING THE ARMS TRADE ASIDE THE UK SINCE JOINING THE EUROPEAN UNION (WHETHER IT HAS BEEN A NET CONTRIBUTOR OR NOT)  HAS NEVER ENGAGED WITH THE OVERRIDING ASPIRATION OF THE EU – PEACE.

With just three months to go to the October deadline, we are now witnessing the new UK Brexit chief Dominic Raab threating to renege on paying the Uk legal exit payments.

TO WALK AWAY FROM THE BREXIT DIVORCE WILL BRAKE INTERNATIONAL LAW.

THE AMOUNT OF £39 BILLION IS NOT A GRATUITY PAYMENT IT IS A LEGAL LIABILITY.

It represents liabilities to contribute towards pensions to public servants, agreed contributions to joint research and development programmes. It represents binding liabilities that in total are estimated to be £87bn. The EU has agreed to refund $48 bn,  this includes the refund of the UK’s share of the ECB.

Saying that the UK can walk away from its commitments is once more deceiving the people of England.

Do so and there will definitely be NO DEAL ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD other than with the 36 who have bought British-made weapons.

It will then be time to change the national anthem from God save the Queen to God Save The People.

There will be no transition period.

Trade with the EU will be under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. (Immediate customs and regulatory checks, tariffs.)

Sterling will fall- Inflation- unemployment- disruption at ports and airports- prices of consumer good to rise.

Mr Raab claims that the EU,s economy will be worse off.

Get real the EU27 economy is ten to eleven time the size of the UK’s.

With a no deal, the peoples legal status as citizens on both sides will become illegal immigrants as any rights agreed do not apply.

You can rest assured that nobody will ever try to leave the EU in the near future.

Dominic Raab name is derived from an Old-German personal name, which meant “raven.”

PERHAPS HE IS WELL NAMED TO REPRESENT A RAVEN MAD UK that thinks that the EU owes them a deal, on non – negotiated terms to leave. 

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THE BEADY EYE CALLS ON IRELAND AS A NATION TO CALL ON ITS IRISH UK RESIDENTS TO SUPPORT STAYING IN THE EUROPEAN UNION.

28 Thursday Jun 2018

Posted by in 2018: The Year of Disconnection., Articular 50., Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., Democracy, England EU Referendum IN or Out., England., European Commission., European Union., Modern Day Democracy., Politics., Populism., Post - truth politics., The Irish/ Northern Ireland border., The Obvious., Trade Agreements., Unanswered Questions.

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( A five-minute read)

It is estimated that as many as six million people living in the UK have at least one Irish grandparent (around 10% of the UK population.)

BREXIT JUST LIKE THE FAMINE ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS AGO WILL BE A WATERSHED IN THE HISTORY OF IRELAND.

Ireland is once more faced with the indifference of the English who when voting to leave the European Union had no consideration for its closes and biggest trading partner.

It would be fair to say like the Famine that Ireland will be once more the sacrificial lamb of the British political ambitions.

There are few democratic countries (where two out of its regions voted to stay and when combined with the two leave regions the overall majority was only a 3.8% majority.)  that would act on a nonlegal binding referendum which was conducted against a background of lies.

One would think that a majority of at least 5% ON SUCH AN IMPORTANT ISSUE WOULD BE A REASONABLE REQUIREMENT.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of brexit"

If England looked after its people first rather than the glory of a past empire Brexit probably would have never happened. It was the dysfunctional economy of Britain that fueling the leave vote, not immigration.

On top of all of this when you see how different generations voted in the Brexit you realize that the relationship between different age groups in England is broken.

ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IT IS NOW HELL BENT ON DELIVERING THE WORST OF BOTH WORLD; IN OUR OUT. Big business versus the Nigel Farage’s of this world with a handful of Conservatives such as Micheal Gove, Boris Johnson a few Labour MPs.

At the moment dogs cats and ferrets can travel between the UK AND THE EU. Maybe after all of this, all UK citizens will be required to be micro-chipped against Brexit rabies.

SO WE ARE LEFT WITH THE REALITY THAT THE POST BREXIT TRADE DEAL IS GOING TO BE THE MOST COMPLEX PART OF ANY NEGOTIATED DEAL AS IT HAS TO BE UNANIMOUS APPROVED BY 30 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PARLIAMENTS SOME OF WHICH WILL NO DOUBT HOLD THEIR OWN REFERENDUMS.

ALL OF WHICH POINTS TO NO DEAL, AND YEARS OF BATTLING IT OUT IN COURTS PROCEEDINGS WITH A MASSIVE DIVORCE BILL TO BOTH SIDES.

SO THE QUESTION IS; WILL THERE BE ANOTHER UK REFERENDUM.

Not likely.

To rejoin would mean starting from scratch, with no rebates, the lost of sterling with and all current member agreeing to the UK rejoining.

As for clout outside the EU.

A UK in disarray will have a much influence on the world stage as the DUP is willing to give it at a price.

Forming its own Trade area is an artificial intelligence algorithm yet to be invented.

However, there is a way out of all of this.

The UK abdicates its powers to NORTHERN IRELAND.

ITS CITIZENS BORN AND TO BE BORN HAVE THE ABSOLUTE RIGHT TO CARRY BOTH UK PASSPORTS AND IRISH – THUS FUTURE ENGLISH GENERATIONS CAN REMAIN IN THE THE EU.

ALL THEY  WILL HAVE TO REMEMBER IS TO CARRY YOUR IRISH PASSPORT WHEN YOU ARE JOINING THE EU CITIZENS – ONLY QUEUE AT THE AIRPORT.

IT WOULD AVOID A HUGE LOSS OF FACE ON ALL SIDES.

One final observation;

The English don’t appear to understand that the European Union is governed by rules for a reason.

That reason is simple to understand.

The European Union is made up of countries that don’t quite trust each other.  They need rules to function, with an independent court to settle any problems.

Whoever thought that Northern Ireland would unite not just Ireland but the whole of the UK.Résultat de recherche d'images pour "picture of brexit"

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. IRELAND REMAINS AT THE MERCY OF ENGLAND.

24 Friday Nov 2017

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., England., European Commission., European Union., The Irish/ Northern Ireland border., Unanswered Questions.

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( A twenty-minute read)

This post is a follow on from my open letter to Mrs A Foster leader of the DUP.

No other country is going to feel the fallout from the UK’s vote to leave the European Union more than Ireland.  Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of the irish border"

Every single aspect of life in Northern Ireland and Ireland will be affected by the outcome —  jobs, the economy, the border, the rights of EU citizens, the rights of cross-border workers, research funding … trade, agriculture, energy, fisheries, aviation, EU funding, tourism, public services, the list goes on.

The border was first set up in 1921 following the Irish War of Independence. Customs controls were brought in three years later with a heavy military presence which remained pretty consistent for the next 70 years. It wasn’t until about 2005 until all the remaining controls were removed with a shared control of the British & Irish border between the two countries.

The question is how Ireland’s politicians and executives, react to what could be a foreign-policy crisis that eclipses the nation’s banking collapse and bailout.

It’s hard to prepare detailed plans before the exact nature of the UK’s new relationship with the EU becomes clear, BUT THE MOST OBVIOUS ISSUE is the 310-mile border between the north and the republic.

The Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian conflict, had no position on the vote.

The unfortunate reality is that Ireland remains at the mercy of the unfolding drama in its closest neighbor and the rest of the EU that will require Ireland to establish a hard border to protect the integrity of the Internal Market and the Customs Union irrelevant of the danger of a return to civil strife on the island.

“The consequences are mind-boggling.”Image associée

If this circle cannot be squared the Uk it will exit the EU without a deal. This will be the ‘ hardest’ of the ‘hard Brexit’ possibilities. A hard Brexit typically entails defaulting to World Trade Organisation rules, involving a very significant deterioration in trade relationship between the UK and the EU, and therefore between Ireland and Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.

Either the British deny the unionist community in Northern Ireland a veto, or the EU and the Irish government accept a land border on the island of Ireland.

A hard border would reintroduce that sense of divide again between the north and south which was nearing the point of becoming a thing of the past.

Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU Referendum by a majority of 56% to 44%. Overall, 440,437 people in Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the EU and 349,442 to Leave. Out of 18 constituencies, 11 voted to stay in the European Union.

Arlene Foster said that as a leader of unionism, she felt it was the right decision. “We are now entering a new era of an even stronger United Kingdom. ” Affirmation that she is void of any comprehension of what a majority means. The reality is that the people of the north of Ireland overwhelmingly voted in favor of Remain – both republican and unionist, Catholic and Protestant and those of no faith background.

From start to finish, she along with Conservative Brexiters have shown that they simply could not care less about Ireland.

In the referendum campaign, few gave even a passing thought to the impact of a leave vote on the relationship between Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK and the republic. When the vote went their way – though they lost in Northern Ireland – the Brexiters then gave bland assurances that the decision would make absolutely no difference to the island’s soft border, the legacy of the peace process, or north-south and east-west cooperation.

This was and is nonsense.

Brexit is not occurring in a vacuum, bad blood engendered if the UK leaves the EU without a deal it will spill over into other areas.

Given the political debacle that’s being made of Brexit by a dysfunctional UK administration, opinion polls in Ireland reflect no enthusiasm for Ireland to join them in leaving the EU, short or long-term, and it is highly unlikely that the North will join the South.

Northern Ireland is not the only stumbling block in the negotiations of course.

There’s no going back to a condition of servile dependency.

I don’t want to be misinterpreted as not caring about threats to peace, but even if one solved the Irish Border problem by having Northern Ireland stay within the Customs Union and Single Market, the huge problem of access to the GB export market would remain, as would the disruption to hassle-free trade with Continental Europe.

There are other scenarios:

  • the UK decides to leave the land border permeable and instead enforce border controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, effectively treating Ulster as some kind of lower-status buffer zone which EU residents can enter without (effective) restriction. Likely to be singularly unpopular with Ulster Unionists.
  • The UK releases Northern Ireland as an independent or quasi-independent country, long the preferred option for saloon bar racists of the home counties (with or without the “tow the whole lot out into the middle of the Atlantic” option).
  • Moving the international frontier into the Irish Sea between Britian and the island of Ireland. This proposal is anathema to both Northern unionists and the British Conservative party as it affects the constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom. The matter is further complicated by the fact that the Conservative government is dependent on the parliamentary support of Northern unionist parliamentarians for retaining its majority – giving it strong reason not to upset this part of its coalition which it bought at the cost of a billion.
  • A so-called invisible border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland simply would not work. Camera recognition technology and preregistered cargo — will not be effective on a border that passes the front door and back doors of houses. 
  • The border has always had a modest amount of smuggling as local tax differentials lead to imbalances, but with full-on export tariffs there would be a very substantial motivation for routing goods from the UK mainland to the continent via Stranraer-Larne and Rosslare-Le Havre on an industrial scale. So there would at the very least be a need for border guards on or close to road border crossings to channel goods vehicles into customs clearance facilities. Assuming the UK were to apply the same tariffs on imports, then the same would also apply in reverse.For Ireland, the issue of preventing Bad Foreign People from entering via its unsecured border is less important (indeed, the need to allow people to maintain existing social and economic links across the border is very important, bearing in mind that a very substantial proportion of the population of the north are Irish citizens)I don’t think the 450 million or so remaining in the EU are going to allow this to happen and be dictated to by Britain.  I also don’t think the British people appreciate how ‘locked in’ Britain is to international supply chains for all types of goods and services. However, businesses will adapt to the new arrangements, whatever they might be. The usual capitalist combination of greed and stupidity will prevail – Ireland has no option but to stick to its guns. 

Theresa May can hope for no more than an “aspirational” and “purely political” agreement on free trade before Britain leaves the European Union.

“Political agreements, with highfalutin aspirational guff are one thing. Legally binding agreements, treaty changes and trade deal texts are another.

As with all things Brexit the only answer at the moment is we have no idea.

And this is a scary prospect.

It’s due to the EU and the UK and Ireland being part of this greater whole that the IRA and Ulster Unionists have largely given up their dumb assery.

While overt attacks have stopped, the animosity between the two sides persists to this day in some parts of both countries.

If we are to avoid  “an enormous tragedy”

There can be no compromise to unblock any negotiations unless the rights of Europeans who will live in the UK after Brexit, the border between Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland and the never never payments are resolved.

No man has the right to fix a boundary to the march of a nation. No man has the right to say to his country: Thus far shalt thou go and no further.”

No Westminster politician can set a boundary on Ireland.

We can only hope that Theresa May government falls, resulting in a general election, with EU requesting a re vote.

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS: IT IS TIME FOR ENGLAND TO FACE UP TO THE UGLY TRUTH AND VOTE AGAIN.

14 Tuesday Nov 2017

Posted by in Brexit v EU - Negotiations., Brexit., England EU Referendum IN or Out., England., European Union., HUMAN INTELLIGENCE, Post - truth politics., The Obvious., Unanswered Questions.

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( A two-minute read)

We have just witness Armistice Day. Image associée

World war 1 is estimated to be responsible for around 37 million civilian and military casualties.  World war 11 is estimated to be responsible for around between 50 million to over 80 million.

Around 3 percent of the world population at the time.

Both were scapegoats for societal ills.

To day we all have to face up to an ugly truth about the world as it is:

There are only 11 countries in the world that are actually free from conflict.

Yet in a time where the amount of data is exploding beyond calculating power and all information is stored and registered, there is ever greater need for seeing the world from above to give us a sense of context, of the relationship between distant entities like Sophia the first Robot to be granted citizenship and the universe we exist in.

What a time to be alive.

A robot with an extremely concerning sense of humor.

Résultat de recherche d'images pour "pictures of robot citizens"

” Don’t worry, if you’re nice to me, I’ll be nice to you. ” ” My artificial intelligence is designed around human values like wisdom, kindness and compassion.”

Perhaps she can explain why it is in a world driven by technology that the dying animal of a Britain that has turned its back on the world when they can belong to a larger world order with infinitely more possibilities, is re-establish the English channel as a mote.

Brexit is a rejection of modernity and openness itself.

It is beyond comprehension that a country that has been the foremost proponent of the freedom of trade for most of its history, a model for incorporating difference into a single political unity is now on the verge of isolating itself when the world is in need of unity more than ever in its sad history.    The United Kingdom had kept people’s with different cultures, even with different languages, gathered around a common purpose. It has created the world’s most cosmopolitan city.

Is this true, for crying out loud you must be kidding. It is obvious that the seventy-five percent of voters under 25 wanted who voted to stay, count for little or nothing.

This doesn’t mean the United Kingdom will be any less united,””Nor indeed does it mean it will be any less European.” That is exactly what is so terrifying, the insularity of the English, their refusal to take foreigners seriously, is a folly that has to be paid for very heavily from time to time, no more so than Ireland.

Tribalism is now, officially, winning. The outcome of what is called negotiations says as much about the future of Western politics, in general, as it does about the future value of the pound.

We all know that the Referendum vote to leave rode on a wave of frustration and fury at the current political and economic order, a toxic brand of xenophobic nationalism, and, above all, misinformation.

Brexit, was a way to lash out at the status quo—a change for the sake of change.

England would do well to make sure the new thing is also the better thing.

The European Union with all its faults has been one of the great success stories of human history, uniting a collection of peoples who have been at war for millennia into a federal government, resulting in a period of peace and prosperity unprecedented since the Roman Empire.

Peace and prosperity are no longer enough. The deep-seated loathing for political elites, and the massive inequality of the global economic order, and the free movement of people who is the inevitable result of that global economic order, have led to a tribalist counter-reaction.

Tribalism makes facts and compassion evaporate.

Perhaps the European Union’s data protection law, set from next year to create a “right of explanation might explain that it is impossible to agree any type of agreement without real damage on both sides.

But perhaps not, as Algorithms are not inherently fair, because the person who builds the model defines success.

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