Category Archives: The Ukraine.

THE BEADY EYE. TOLD YOU SO: WITH NO SOLOUTION TO THE RUSSIAN/UKRAINE WAR WE ARE HEADING FOR A MASSIVE RECESSION

26 Saturday Mar 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., The Ukraine.

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( Fifteen-minute read) 

Severe sanctions on Russia with the rectitude of the Pandemic are now creating a deep recession, resulting in an economic downfall that will be felt by people around the world.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has so far driven energy higher but the knock-on effects are yet to be seen. 

If Vladimir Putin retaliates to wester sanctions by cutting off Russian supplies of Oil /Gas the result will not be just a recession but civil unrest.

                             —————–

Of course, one would be a fool to predict what happens in a war. 

Beyond the military cost and the Human costs, this war is rapidly

turning into a quagmire not just for Russians but for all of us.  

It will not just be pushing millions into poverty and threatening

a deep recession as it evolves into a proxy war with which to

attack Russia and through it China. 

We have seen nothing yet.

                            ——————

When it comes to inflation the war’s international economic effect is starting to show in the numbers. 

If the cost of energy and food is pushed up by dwindling supplies caused by the Russian-Ukraine conflict we will see inflation go well beyond 10%.  

Both countries, Russia or Ukraine,  were once dubbed “the breadbasket of Europe”, exporting about a quarter of the world’s wheat and half of its sunflower products, like seeds and oil. 

For example, in the UK there are about 2.2 million homeowners with mortgages linked to the Bank of England’s base rate would see repayments go up, putting further pressure on household budgets that are already being squeezed by the cost of living.

Russian stocks crashed by as much as 45% in the wake of the Ukraine invasion with trading subsequently suspended, with banks and oil companies among the worst affected. It also led to steep falls on stock markets elsewhere around the world: in Europe, the UK’s FTSE 100 index has fallen over 6% since Russia crossed into Ukraine while Germany’s Dax index is nearly 10% lower.

Everyday goods – which may seem far removed from the conflict – but Russia is a leading commodities exporter.

Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of metals used in everything from aluminum cans to copper wires, to car components, such as nickel, which is used in lithium-ion batteries, and palladium, which is used in catalytic converters.

What we lack is a government with vision, courage, a sense of urgency, and basic competence coupled with an understanding that the world has changed.

With truth has been rejected by most of the

world’s population well before the shooting wars

started.  It is difficult to discern what the

planned end state of this war is.

However, as we all know the truth is the first casualty of wars so it’s a good time to start really learning how to watch what is going on. 

Here are some raw facts.

Partitioning a state causes all sorts of problems. This is how Ukraine and Northern Ireland were created in the first place – people meddling with the borders of territories.

Russia would need 800,000 troops — almost equal to its entire active-duty military — to control Ukraine long-term in the face of the armed opposition.

The slow advance of Russian troops in Ukraine shows that NATO’s fearmongering about some huge Siberian tiger force is fake; Putin commands only a paper tiger. Ukraine doesn’t need a NATO and neither do bigger states like Germany, France, Italy, or the UK.

The Russian army still has far superior firepower to the Ukrainian army. This superiority means that, despite some localized Ukrainian counter-offensives, it retains the initiative.

Faced with the hostility of the Ukrainian population united by this invasion, the Russian army will have difficulty maintaining control of the conquered territories. A protracted guerrilla war would ensue. 

In a nutshell, the confrontations would continue for many more long months, even years.

Russia will not just let what’s left of Ukraine go its merry way to become another problem in a decade or so.

Something will be formed and the Russians will mostly go home but NATO will not give up on stirring the pot. They may even fold what is left into NATO and then it will really be game on.

So, we have a new war to watch.

For some, it is just a weird kind of entertainment. For others, it is a good way to refine our thinking skills and our understanding of the world. We learn how to work through misinformation and build a clear picture of what is really going on.

Where is this going to stop? 

There is always a need for political courage to create space for peace and leave room for a political settlement. It takes two hands to clap.’ whatever the circumstances.

Ukraine is now engaged in a direct conflict with Russia. As a result, the model must be Ukrainian. In the event of an agreement based on these principles, the Kremlin would undoubtedly struggle to present as a “victory” a situation that, in fact, would be more “locked-in” than the one that existed before the invasion began.

Part of the problem is that Ukraine was not a neutral country when Russia first invaded it. The country formally abandoned its neutral status in late 2014. 

Neutrality is not a neutral concept but a complex political one, with major implications for countries’ international and domestic policies and development.

Relations between the EU and Nato the West, especially those countries that have acted in supplying weapons to Ukraine or implementing sanctions, are very unlikely to return to the state they were in before this conflict but Ukraine is just not the wake-up call to nations that new order is emerging.

So the real question, as civilians continue to be killed throughout Ukraine and negotiators try to hammer out a compromise, is this:

What arrangement would preserve actual independence for Ukraine, while still being acceptable to the Kremlin?

The war going on in Ukraine right now is about using Ukraine as a buffer to all the problems of sovereignty in a world that is going to see more conflict as Climate change forces people to move. 

How best to respond to a Russian invasion that threatens fundamental principles of sovereignty and respect for international borders that had, in theory at least, served as the foundation of European peace and security since the end of the Second World War.

Putin declared at the end of his Feb. 23 address : 

“Whoever tries to interfere with us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never experienced in your history. We are ready for any development of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made. I hope that I will be heard.”

While stopping short of threatening the use of nuclear weapons, Putin’s comments left no doubt that any intervention by NATO as an organization, or individual NATO members, in Ukraine would result in war with Russia.

NATO is playing a risky game, however, by continuing to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine that originate from and are shipped through NATO members’ territory.

While the threat of NATO overreach in providing air support to the Ukrainian government exists, the greatest potential for a NATO-Russian clash in Ukraine rests in the ongoing flow of refugees from Ukraine into neighboring territories.

If Russia begins its long-anticipated assault on Kyiv or otherwise engages in activities that dramatically alter the situation in the rest of Ukraine, it is anticipated that millions more Ukrainians will be seeking refugee status, creating the real potential for one of the greatest humanitarian emergencies since the end of the Second World War.

If the war in Ukraine continues unabated at a level equaling or exceeding its current scope and scale, it is not a stretch of the imagination to think that there will be a refugee-induced crisis that will require some form of humanitarian intervention.

Perhaps it is time for NATO and EU diplomats to act in a proactive fashion, reaching out to their Russian counterparts in an effort to anticipate both the problem and the solution, in a manner that does not create the conditions for inadvertent military conflict.

What is going on in Ukraine is tragic.

Ukraine has always been between a rock and a hard place with its history of being torn between East and West will not be easy to overcome.

However, the most positive outlook for a unified and prosperous Ukraine involves moving beyond this false and outdated dichotomy.

No nation of any standing will accept the presence of inimical ..interests surrounding its geographical borders.

There is a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, however — although it would require the West to think about the country in a fundamentally new way.

Is it time European nations and the USA gave serious thought to the need for the objectives of NATO?

I’m not sure NATO was ever solely a defensive force; it was equally a tool for US domination of Europe. 

We are left with the Question.

Why do wars occur and recur, especially in cases when the decisions involved are made by careful and rational actors?

There are many answers to this question.

For my part, they arise from an agency problem either on the part of the current ruler or the leader of the attack. There must exist incentives for conflict and some barriers to the ability to reach an enforceable bargain.

To fully understand decisions to go to war, such decisions cannot be divorced from the broader endogenous armament environment in which they reside.,

A peace agreement only becomes attainable after the balance of power has shifted so that it becomes in both sides’ interest to agree to peace.

This can take a long time. 

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How Russia Will Counterpunch the U.S./EU Declaration of War

THE BEADY EYE SAYS. PEACE IS ” PERPETUAL WAR “

12 Saturday Mar 2022

Posted by in Remove term: RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/ EU., The Ukraine., Uncategorized

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(Eight-minute read) 

Peace is “perpetual war.”       “Global” is imperial.

In today’s world, it is impossible to find a phenomenon that harms people more than war.While Trump Fiddles, Putin Steps Up the War in Ukraine

By now in our history, we all know that any war is to blame for people being killed.

It is not only military deaths but every living individual so you might be well asking why do we now have another war breaking out in Ukraine?

We all know that there are so many reasons for starting these wars that no appeal and no desire for peace will ever be heard if the authorities want so. Sometimes it simply is inevitable.

(This post is not to justify the out brake, rather try and understand why it is occurring in the first place.) 

It’s not just that Putin has become a  “farce with fangs.” in reclaiming Crimea. More than 90 percent of the population of Crimea voted to return the territory to Russia.

The conflict in Ukraine started with the refusal of ex-president Viktor Yanukovich to sign the agreement of Ukraine’s association with the European Union. Thousands of people, shocked by his decision, went to the streets to show their willingness to become part of Europe and live a happier and wealthier life.

Most of us have no knowledge about Ukraine and it’s not possible to explain its history in this post.

However, most of us are still not quite sure what Ukraine was or is. 

“Ukraine was a little bit like Ireland used to be within the United Kingdom” It was a subordinate part of a greater whole, of a greater empire.

“During the revolution that ushered in the Soviet Union, Ukraine fought for independence. It lost, and in 1922 was subsumed inside the communist state.

This was followed by Stalin creating  “The Holodomor an artificial famine,” to crush its people its language and culture. Just like the Irish Potato Famine known as the Great Hunger, which began in 1845 that saw millions of Irish either starve to death or immigrate. Stalin between 1932 and 1933, starved some four million Ukrainians to death.

The significance of the Potato Famine (or, in the Irish language, An Gorta Mor) in Irish history, and its contribution to the Irish diaspora of the 19th and 20th centuries, is beyond doubt still to this day. 

“The attempt to eliminate Ukrainian-ness and the sense of it, of a separate identity and the sense of nationhood, has really been a Russian policy since the 19th century, but its sense of nationhood was growing stronger.

And now this disaster has befallen them and this feeling that they may be dragged back into some horrific Stalin-era or Czarist-era nightmare must be tormenting a lot of them.

                                  —————-

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has ringed Russia with military bases, nuclear warplanes, and missiles as part of its Nato Enlargement Project. NATO has, in effect, militarily occupied eastern Europe.

In fact in the former Soviet Caucasus, Nato’s expansion is the biggest military build-up since the Second World War.

Imagine the response if these acts of provocation, or intimidation, were carried out on America’s borders.

“It’s a nice and convenient myth that liberals are peacemakers and conservatives the warmongers.”

The once hopeful concept of  “Russian reform” now means regression, even destruction. In Orwellian fashion, this has been inverted in the west to the “Russian threat”.

The Nuremberg prosecutor Robert Jackson called “the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole”

                                  —————————-

As a consequence, we have witnessed Iraq dismembered with between 97,461 and 106,348 civilian deaths up to July 2010.

(The US has lost 4,487 service personnel. Half a million Iraqi infants under the age of five make up the Iraq deaths.) 

Syria flattened.  A decade of war in Syria has left more than 350,200 people dead.

Yemen. Almost a quarter of a million people have died in Yemen’s war. 

Afghanistan, so far the war killed 176,000 people in Afghanistan; some 2,460 US military personnel and 51000 Taliban.  

Israel/Palestine.  At least 10,316 Palestinians and 1,287 Israelis.

Myanmar. The Rohingya genocide.  

“Behind each recorded death is a human being, born free and equal, in dignity and rights”.

Some sources say that the Soviet Union had over 20,000,000 casualties, in world war Two. 

                             _________________

” Perhaps the imperialism of the liberal way may be more dangerous because of its open-ended nature: its conviction that it represents a superior form of life.”

It is “so widely accepted as to be virtually unchallengeable”.  

In the modern era, the employment of ethnic differences in western power and propaganda systems is now seen as essential.

Today’s grand illusion is of an information age when, in truth, we live in a media age in which incessant corporate propaganda is insidious, contagious, effective, and liberal is creating a world of inequalities.  

No Shelley speaks for the poor, no Blake for utopian dreams, no Byron damns the corruption of the ruling class, no Thomas Carlyle and John Ruskin reveal the moral disaster of capitalism. William Morris, Oscar Wilde, HG Wells, George Bernard Shaw have no equivalents today.

“Austerity” is the imposition of extreme capitalism on the poor and the gift of socialism for the rich: an ingenious system under which the majority service the debts of the few.

It’s no wonder we have wars. 

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. PUTIN IS NOWADAYS ISOLATED AND IN HIS OWN ‘STEROID WORLD’. IN HIS OWN MENTAL WORLD.

09 Wednesday Mar 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., RUSSIA/ UKRAINE/ US/ NATO/ EU, The Ukraine.

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(Three-minute read) 

Putin has been posing as Russia’s defender against an allegedly aggressive West and redeemer of ethnic Russians and brother Slavs everywhere since he came to power.

A heroic Ukrainian defense that actually repels Russian forces remains militarily unlikely,  but a Ukrainian victory would make all the above propaganda untenable.

He could not survive the defeat politically and knows it.

Therefore he won’t allow this scenario to happen.

Instead of withdrawing, he’ll follow one of three other paths.

                                             —————–

He could escalate the attack dramatically — but still with only conventional weapons. Basically, that means bombing Ukraine into submission. The loss of civilian and military lives would be horrendous, but Putin wouldn’t care. He would incorporate a seething and resentful Ukraine — either as a nominally independent puppet state or a subdivision of Greater Russia — and maybe add Belarus for good measure.

His empire would become a permanent pariah in the international community.

The world would have a new Iron Curtain.

Putin will therefore at least consider another — literally nuclear — option.

It’s the one he’s already hinted at.

Claiming that NATO and the EU are cornering him by supporting Ukraine with weapons and other wherewithal, he could launch one or more “limited” nuclear strikes with so-called tactical (here meaning low-yield) warheads.

Ukraine, like Japan in 1945, would have no choice but to surrender.

So what can be hope for?  

A homegrown Russian revolution would be by far the best outcome.

The new regime in Moscow could blame the attack on Putin alone, which happens to be true. It could therefore withdraw without looking weak. The international community could welcome Russia back with open arms. The world, including Russia, would become a better place.

China could flex its economic mussel.   

At the United Nations this week, 141 countries voted to deplore Putin’s aggression. China could have joined the four rogues (Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, and Syria) who voted with Russia against the resolution.

Instead, along with 34 other countries, it merely abstained.

As for ‘steroids.’ They are synthetic hormones, similar to testosterone, which have anabolic (bodybuilding) effects due to the fact they stimulate the growth of skeletal muscle. They also have androgenic (male) effects which enhance typical male characteristics. When you see a male bodybuilder, many will have been using steroids to create this appearance.

PERHAPS THIS IS WHY PUTIN HAS LOST THE PLOT. 

In the long term, anabolic steroids affect the central nervous system of the human brain, directly on neurotransmitter systems.

After all, the best way to deal with a cornered rat is usually to let it escape before it does more harm.

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. WITH THE OUTBRAKE OF WAR IN THE UKRAIN THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR THE REST OF US IN THE WORLD TO CLOSE OUR EYES AND GO ASLEEP.

09 Wednesday Mar 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., Profiteering., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Ukraine.

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( Seven-minute read) 

The war will have many far-reaching consequences, most of which we can’t predict yet. It is not mature enough to cause a major market crash which is an unfortunate possibility.

Apart from weapon manufacturing companies like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin — who are openly telling their investors that tensions between the countries are good for business, there will be what I call Scap other companies making profiteering where the sun does not shine. 

So we need a list of these companies TO EXPOSE them and BOYCOTT them.

For now, the sanctions imposed on Russia are not targeting energy. But that can change if the conflict evolves further. ( IT HAS JUST BEEN ANNOUNCED AS I WRITE THIS POST THAT THE USA/EUROPEAN UNION/AND BRITAIN ARE TO STOP PURCHASING RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS.) 

RUSSIAN CRUDE IS HEAVY OIL. AS SUCH IT CAN NOT TO REPLACED WITH OIL FROM OTHER SOURCES AS MOST REFINERIES IN EUROPE ARE SET UP TO HANDLE HEAVY OIL TO PRODUCE PETROL. 

Of about five million barrels of crude oil Russia exports each day, more than half of that goes to Europe.  Russian gas accounts for about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports.

In the meantime the other wars – Afghanistan – Ethiopia – Yemen – Syria – South Sudan –  Israel/Palestine  – Equality vs Equity – Covid – all but ignored. 

There are 10 official wars and 8 active military conflicts recognized by the United States.  Everyone requires the same level of sanctions which are now to be applied to Russia.  Is Putin pulling the strings?

                                            —————————–

We already have an ever-growing list of companies taking action against Russia with “Collateral Damage” to all of us so the opportunity to hike prices by blaming the war is yet to be seen.

Large corporations will no doubt capitalize on anti-war sentiments, the same is doubly true for oil companies, banks, and energy.

Doesn’t it make you feel good knowing that these multi-billion dollar corporations will be able to cash in on the death of thousands of innocent Ukrainians?  

The fact that advertisers have to use the values of our movement to sell us products reflects just how strong our anti-war struggle has become.

This gobbledegook is the kind of thing that corporations pay tens of thousands of pounds for.

Sizewell

So let’s start with THE EDF. 

French nuclear stations are the backbone of the European power system, and the outages have contributed to higher power prices across the continent along with the wider gas supply crisis.

Here is an 85% state-owned company that has had a monopoly for years on energy squandering billions in the public funds now increasing the price of electricity by 54% coming in April amid a cost of living crisis as inflation and food costs rise.

EDF Energy was compelled to help out as a swathe of energy suppliers collapsed in the U.K., getting paid 168 million pounds to take on more than 200,000 domestic customers from failed providers. In total, the company added more than 650,000 residential accounts last year.

It was fined £6m by Ofgem for sending “misleading signals” to the National Grid about how much electricity its power plants could generate. The energy regulator found that for more than two years, EDF frequently inflated the minimum amount of power that it said its West Burton B generator plant could supply.

While EDF normally generates the bulk of its electricity from its network of 56 nuclear reactors across France, many are near the end of their 40-year lifespans and around a dozen have been shut or will be soon to carry out safety inspections over corrosion risk.

Much of the £20bn construction cost of the new EDF nuclear plant Hinkley Point C nuclear plant in southwest England in 2026, will be funded by the addition of £1 a month to consumer bills applied through a mechanism currently making its way through parliament.

This is what is to come.  EDF the energy price cap on certain deals is rising by 54% a year.  The price cap is not an absolute limit on your bills.

The sheer scale of these energy bill increases will cause real concern and fear for families and households. 

                                        —————————

“Successive governments have welcomed the oligarchs and their money with open arms, providing them with a means of recycling illicit finance through the London ‘laundromat’, and connections at the highest levels with access to UK companies and political figures.

For example 

Lubov Chernukhin is a Russian banker and married to Putin’s former finance minister. She has spent a fortune buying time with politicians, including £160,000 to play tennis with David Cameron and Boris Johnson. She paid £135,000 for “a night out with Theresa May”. The most recent donations—last quarter—to the Tory party include £80,000 from Chernukhin.

                                    ————————-

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is casting a pall over neighboring countries, with war jitters spurring panic-buying of gasoline, cash shortages, energy price hicks, etc. 

After reading about the greed and hypocrisy of all these corporations I bet I know what you are thinking. You are going to reject all this consumerism and get yourself a Stop the War Coalition T-shirt. Am I right?

If so, is it a case of subliminal advertising? Or is it the power of one of the largest political movements this country has ever seen? You decide.

Today, Russia provides 10% of the world’s oil. Do you want to make that oil worthless?

Show Putin, you don’t need it. That’s what accelerating the transition to a clean energy future will do.  

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THE BEADY EYE ASKS. DO YOU REMEMBER BREXIT?

03 Thursday Mar 2022

Posted by in #whatif.com, 2022: The year we need to change., Brexit Remembered., The Ukraine.

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(Two-minute read) 


The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020. The transition period that was in place – during which nothing changed – ended on 31 December 2020. The rules governing the new relationship between the EU and UK took effect on 1 January 2021.

With the outbreak of war in Ukraine, it is now endeavoring to break its ties to Russian dirty money, which no doubt influenced it to leave the EU in the first place. As more and more information became available, there is no longer a mystery as to why the UK left the only organization that was formed to promote peace in Europe.

Now pathetically following in the footsteps of a United European Union with its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine the true cost of leaving is becoming more and more apparent. 

When this war is over as it will be, because all wars run out of steam the UK is not going to be at any Summit with Europe to sort out the mess that remains. 

Of course, god forbid that the Ukrainian/ Russian spreads and turned into a nuclear conflict the “right to be forgotten” is written into European Union laws.

This might be to do with Privacy on the Internet, but in England’s case ( which is still unable to accept war refugees), it won’t be forgotten for all the non-nuclar reasons.

Is it conceivable that Britain might one day rejoin the European bloc it has now left?

The conventional wisdom says no, negotiations with Brussels will be a permanent fixture. Keeping the light on for its eventual return might now seem hopelessly romantic. 

But I say there will be a gradual process whereby the most damaging effect on the EU with England rejoining will have to be removed piecemeal before it is accepted back into the European Union. 

                                      ———————- 

It is estimated that Britain’s trade volume has been pushed down by more than 10 percent compared with what it would have been if it had remained in the EU but just wait till the Russian energy tap is turned off.

Then there may be some questions over the UK’s economic eligibility, especially if it had different level playing field rules to the EU.

Under Article 49, any country applying to become an EU member state must meet the following criteria:

  • Be a European state
  • Respect and commit to promoting Article 2 values – including human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law, human rights (specifically minority rights), pluralism, non-discrimination, tolerance, justice, solidarity, and equality.
  • Have its application unanimously approved by the Council of the EU.
  • Have its application approved by a majority vote of the European Parliament.

The UK would also need to secure the support of all member states to open and conclude accession talks. Considering the UK’s historical reluctance to integrate with the EU fully, this may be a concern to the bloc.

The UK would also need to secure the support of MEPs.

Any country dissatisfied with the prospect of the UK as a member state could veto membership, and there will be many.

With all of the world’s answers seemingly at the touch of the keyboard, people have the ability to search and find information with ease.

Let’s hear your comments.

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. HERE IS THE GOOD NEWS.

02 Wednesday Mar 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., Our Common Values., Russia / Ukraine ., State of the world, Technology v Humanity, The common good., The Obvious., The state of the World., The Ukraine., The world to day., THE WORLD YOU LIVE IN., THIS IS THE STATE OF THE WORLD.  , Unanswered Questions., Uncategorized, We can leave a legacy worthwhile., What Needs to change in the World, Where's the Global Outrage., World Organisations., World Politics

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( Fifteen-minute read) 

Up to now, we humans have tried everything to change the planet that we all live on – such as wipe out each other,  political systems,  cities,  religious beliefs, weapons of mass destruction, world organizations without any global clout, financial institutions manipulating power, money, elections, corruption, all enhancing inequality.

All are devoid of any asperation for peace and sharing. In fact, we have designed a world around the mantra  ” Pay as you go ” which includes all aspects of life even the privilege of paying for your own funeral. 

In the meantime, Earth is never stationary it spins at 1000 miles per hour. 

As Galileo Galilei said, “Nature is relentless and unchangeable, and it is indifferent as to whether its hidden reasons and actions are understandable to man or not.” 

                                                  ————

 The “New Earth” that people envisioned never quite materialized as predicted. 

With the dramatic worldwide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and now a new war in Ukraine, one could not be blamed for thinking what next rather than where next. 

I suppose that eventually, we will reach a tipping point, after which we will consider 4D/5D things “normal”.

Maybe in the distant future  “enlightenment”, will be more about knowing yourself as the consciousness that is witnessing reality.

Creating one’s reality for life and the planet that we truly love in which we are fully conscious and in full control over everything that we experience in our subconscious reality. Even so, we will still not be in full control of what happens to us and the environment we are in, because of our collective inability to agree that we are all the same.

So where are we? 

The most distinctive aspect of our approach is the lack of ‘long-term’ action.

Longterm is the idea that because such huge numbers of individuals might live in the long-run future, and because we think everyone’s interests matter equally, approaches to improving the world should be evaluated mainly in terms of their potential for long-term impact — over thousands, millions, or even billions of years.

In the 1950s, large-scale production of nuclear weapons meant that a few world leaders gained, for the first time, the ability to kill hundreds of millions of people.

This was a striking milestone in a robust trend: as technology improves and the world economy grows, it gets easier to cause destruction on an ever-larger scale.

This is where we are.

                                        ——————

When we look at the history of the human race, we see many examples of major moral problems that most people were completely oblivious to. These include slavery, the deplorable treatment of foreigners, the subjugation of women, the persecution of people who aren’t heterosexual, and the gross mistreatment of animals.

New transformative technologies may promise a radically better future, but also pose catastrophic risks, and mitigating these risks is presently all but totally ignored.  Work on mitigating many risks remains remarkably neglected — in some cases receiving attention from only a handful of researchers.

With machine learning, the fate of humanity may come to depend more on the actions of machines than our own. This could lead to large, rapid improvements in human welfare, but there are good reasons to think that it could also lead to disastrous outcomes.

The problem of how one might design a highly intelligent machine to pursue realistic human goals safely is very poorly understood. You might think ‘why can’t we just turn it off?’, but of course, an intelligent system will give every indication of doing exactly what we want, until it is certain we won’t be able to turn it off.

Even if advanced machine intelligence does not get ‘out of control’, it is likely to be very socially disruptive and could be used as a destabilizing weapon of war.

There have been surprisingly few serious attempts to make such big-picture comparisons. 

There are many global issues we haven’t yet seen investigated much at all. These are not always the biggest problems in the world — rather they are the issues that receive little attention compared to how important they are and how much can be done about them.

Different problems could be bigger if there are problems that humanity hasn’t even thought of yet. And it seems likely that we haven’t discovered all the serious global problems which exist.

You might think by now that world politicians won’t be motivated to act on the results of global priorities.

I would say that if anyone is looking at the state of the world our focus should be more on oneness and unconditional love for all existence with a distinct set of rules about what you can and cannot do.

So here is the good news.

Humanity’s superior intelligence is pretty much the sole reason that it is the dominant species on the planet. 

The chance of great power conflict this century was around 45%, now it’s 100% and the chance of an extinction-level war was around 1% it is now with technology a lot more than doubters cannot dismiss. 

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THE BEADY EYE ASKS; WHY DO WARS OCCUR AND RECUR?

26 Saturday Feb 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., Russia / Ukraine ., The Ukraine., Wars

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( Seven-minute read) 

We are incapable of living in peace with each other as there will always be incentives for conflict. 

Wars are inevitable because of the disposition of man and if we are unsuccessful in tackling climate change we will be seeing lots more of them so the answer to this question is that wars will be inevitable.

The plagues of wars these days seem more elusive than a cure for Covid/Climate change…No end to the carnage seems to be in sight. A lucrative arms trade ensures that the world’s armies​—and guerrillas—​will continue to be grimly effective.

More localized for the moment and ironically, this wholesale butchery is occurring during an age that has seen unparalleled efforts to outlaw war as a way of resolving disputes between nations.

The machine gun is no respecter of the fittest or boundaries, with the bomb annihilating the strong along with the weak.

Hitler wrote in Mein Kampf,  “Mankind has grown great in an eternal struggle, and only in eternal peace does it perish. . . . The stronger must dominate and not blend with the weaker.”

Over 2,000 years ago, Plato said that “only the dead have seen the end of war.” Is his bleak assessment a bitter truth we must learn to accept?

If war were inevitable, there would be little point in trying to end it.

War is not something created by the heat of passion. It takes years of preparation and indoctrination, weapons production, and training.

This is why we must use more effective and less destructive tools to resolve conflicts and to achieve security. Militarism has made us less safe and continues to do so.

War long predates Capitalism/ Communism.  War in human history up to this point has not correlated with population density or resource scarcity.

The idea that climate change and the resulting catastrophes will inevitably generate wars could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The looming climate crisis is a good reason for us to outgrow our culture of war.

 Hunger in the world must be abolished, inequality must be irritated and profit for profit sake   

Why?

Because weapons must be the arbiters of so many disputes.    

There is an interrelation between different factors that lead to war? 

All wars have some plausible situations in the eyes of the decision-makers such that the anticipated gains from a war in terms of resources, power, glory, territory, and so forth exceed the expected costs of conflict, including expected damages to property and life.

Thus, for war to occur with rational actors, at least one of the sides involved has to expect that the gains from the conflict will outweigh the costs incurred.

There has to be a failure in bargaining so that for some reason there is an inability to reach a mutually advantageous and enforceable agreement.

A lack of enforceable agreements is often one of the main ingredients leading to protracted wars. 

Being faced by an armed rational or irrational foe leads a rational country to arm to some level. In turn, this now means that either a foe who is irrational or a foe who thinks that I might be irrational will be armed, even more, and this feedback continues to build.

So here we are after two world wars still unable to have any real understanding as to why we are witnessing the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine.

Now, Ukraine is the pawn.

America has bombed a sovereign country every day for the last twenty years, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen. Yet that is never part of the story we tell ourselves.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, we have used NATO to surround Russia.

Despite assurances, NATO would not expand to include former Soviet bloc countries, we have done just that. We weaponized Ukraine, minimized diplomatic solutions such as the Minsk Protocol, played a role in the 2014 coup that ousted the government there, and installed a pro-Western one.

But it does not seem to prevent our pro-Western government, our news media, our own selves from repeating the war myth it now becoming our bedtime story, one that seeds a nightmare.

The West as the good guys and everyone else as evil. We have arrived at this point of peril in Eastern Europe because we have lost the ability to see the world through the eyes of another. 

It thus becomes impossible to comprehend the behavior of other nations, to understand their fears, their concerns. We know only our own created story, our own myth, we care only for our own concerns, and so are forever at war.

We become provocateurs rather than peacemakers.

Ukraine should not have to suffer invasion by Russia. And Russia should not have had its safety and security threatened by NATO expansion and weaponry.

A good portion of our overview of the causes of war is thus spent discussing a framework of different bargaining failures.

So how will this Russian/ Ukrainian war be ended?  

The same as all wars a tragedy, creating the ground for the next war.

We seem to be caught somewhere in an unplanned downward trajectory slipping lower and lower, circling around and around toward some kind of catastrophe that is as yet unvisualised and unseen.  

We are very close to passing some irreversibly turning point, after which we will not be able to go back.

Let’s see if maybe we can miss the huge disaster that now seems to be looming in our future. We need to turn our full attention to fixing our environment.

Are we truly incapable of resolving these concerns without slaughtering each other? Is our intellect that limited, our patience that short, our humanity so curdled that we must repeatedly reach for the sword? War is not genetically set in our bones, and these problems are not divinely created. We made them, and the myths surrounding them, and so we can unmake them.

We must believe this if we are to survive. 

This is a long hard battle to be won.  Let’s pick our own future.

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THE BEADY EYE SAYS. WITH THE UKRAINE GLOBAL BRITIAN IS A JOKE.

02 Wednesday Feb 2022

Posted by in 2022: The year we need to change., The Ukraine.

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(Fifteen-minute read)

The military-industrial complex and its clients, seem to have decided that the next place we need to go and kill people (or at least sell weapons to help others kill people) is Ukraine, assuming that Russia decides to slice off a section of its former province.

However, misfortunes of geographical fate do not mean that we should wander into conflict.

Now is not the time for more foreign and military adventurism and yet another pointless war just to expand NATO to the Russian border. ( How near do you have to be to fire a rocket?)

In fact, it boggles the mind that European powers are not standing firm against such an escalation considering they have the most to lose from a war in Europe.

It is high time to reject warmongering and embrace appeasement; yes appeasement; mutual strategic appeasement to avoid another devastating European war and dreadful world crisis.

Fortunately very few of us alive today have ever experienced the horrors of war, it is turned into entertainment by Hollowood and Net flicks. 

Perhaps this is the reason that most of us are silent and not shouting.

                            ———————–

The pace of change in an ever more challenging global environment inevitably has a significant impact on how the powers of the world influence and protect their national interests.

Armed forces britain

The UK Government is using the phrase ‘Global Britain’ since the EU referendum in 2016 to summarise its post-Brexit foreign policy.

Let me tell you that it is a cynical attempt to distract from the state of the UK since it left the EU. 

If you believe everything written in the mainstream press in Britain or heard on the airwaves, you would no doubt think that Russia is on course for either an all-out invasion or a coup d’etat in Ukraine.

Boris Johnson has just touched down in Ukraine is whipping up hysteria around the ‘threat’ of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. – presumably to single-handedly avert the impending ‘catastrophic invasion’. He will not tolerate Russia’s ‘destabilizing activity.

Putin is shitting in his pants in case he gets an invitation to a drinks party in no 10.  

We have all heard the Boris lies – and know the imperialist interests that hide behind them.

Unfortunately England no longer a member of the European Union and now thinks that is it is once more a Global Power. Global Britain’ was dreamt up as a way of underlining that Brexit did not mean insularity.

Mr. Johnson needs to consider whether it really makes sense to create a grouping of democracies without engaging closely with the EU, whether some of those he is inviting really merit the label ‘democracy,’ and, indeed, what balance he wishes to strike between sanctioning and engaging with China.

It is hard to believe, that he repeatedly called for a free trade agreement with China.

With one of the highest numbers of death from covid his leadership of the country, is hinging in part on setting an example at home and this is not a UK Government that has, as yet, shown an aptitude for thinking beyond the short term. 

It is obvious to all that Britain/Uk ( Whatever it is now called- The four Ununited Nations) with its departure from the EU signaled a lessening of international ambition and commitment. Its economic recovery from both the pandemic and from Brexit, and its ability to retain its unity in the face of separatist challenges are far bigger political problems than selling arms to Ukraine and then sending British soldiers to be killed by the very arms it sold in the first place. 

                                        ——————-  

To deliver on the rhetoric of a Global Britain, the Government will need to make hard choices and to show evidence of clarity and long-term vision that, to date, have been rather notable by their absence.

All the while, Ukraine looks at Britain with confusion and consternation, with officials in Kyiv distancing themselves from the alarmist picture being spun by Washington and its obedient allies.

You would think that after two world wars, Vietnam/ Afghanistan not to mention the numerous other wars in progress, we would all understand that wars are easy to start, costing young lives, for nothing to change other than the reassess of the warring nation’s place in the world.

Global Britain is now the UK government’s mantra for its post-Brexit foreign policy which involves thinking and acting globally but the UK is regarded by most Americans as a kind of historic theme park that helps tourism.

 Beyond the slogan, what is now it’s global standing.

On the military front, British threats are just farcical. Britain could make all the sound and fury it likes, and it would signify nothing.

Obviously, the countries with the most influence are those with military power and it depends on the range and depth of bilateral and regional relationships. Militarily, Great Britain is less than great.

Boris Johnson not surprisingly is supposed to be cutting the British army to 72,500 soldiers by 2025, its lowest level for 300 years. By 2026 the Royal Navy will be down from 13 to 10 frigates. There has been a huge shift in emphasis from conventional forces to cutting-edge warfare, with investment in drones and laser weapons.

It is often said that the first casualty of war is truth.

While this is nothing new the press has once again wasted no time in greasing the wheels of war.

The truth is, there is no appetite for war. The idea that you can invade a country is for those that want to commit Harry Carrie.  

Putin’s maneuver has already brought relative success, forcing NATO and the US to the negotiating table for discussion of Russia’s demands.

It is not in Russia’s interests to invade. An all-out invasion would prove disastrous for Putin and his oligarchical regime.

But why let such facts spoil a good story?

When it comes to Global Britain there are few better distractions than banging the drum about war.

As an increasingly irrelevant world power, Britain is relegated to playing the role of faithful sidekick and loyal accomplice to the interests of US imperialism – a ‘special relationship’ which more resembles the way a poodle looks wistfully to its master. 

For a recent example of this flag-waving rabble, the UK’s evacuation from Afghanistan – in step with the US – was utter humiliation.

British imperialism – now a third-rate power; a veritable pygmy in terms of world relations – was (and still is) in no position to give any credence to being a world power.  So Boris is making no serious commitments that he will actually ever need to honor.

Such people have pitifully short memories, it seems, as this is precisely the sort of rhetoric that preceded NATO’s road to ruin in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and many other countries.

But the real question is as always. Should the world standby and watch as one nation invades another. 

The truth is that there is no answer to this question as wars lead to new wars.   

In the 350 years since the Eternal Peace Treaty (actual name) was signed in 1686, Ukraine has been either a vassal state or province of Russia. Ukraine has been independent only since 1991, and that independence happened only as a consequence of the United States and its allies winning the Cold War.

Ukraine will continue to be a hotbed of chaos and division, as long as it is ruled by a rotten capitalist oligarchy; crushed between the interests of competing for capitalist nations.

Is this what is worth fighting for. I would say No. 

War always costs more than you expect. Hostility takes over every facet of your accustomed life. It worms and digs its way into each tiny crevice, spreading, ripping, and shredding everything that is familiar. Eventually, fighting congeals and reforms itself into a living, breathing reality that consumes everything you knew.

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