(Six-minute read)

You could say that this whole Brexit thing was caused by strong external influences that fell on a political fertile soil in the UK but had no real substance in GB.

Furthermore, it would be correct to say that the EU was devised for, to avoid in future the imperialist ambitions of the nation-states.

It is true that the UK has the right to leave the EU but it is also true that the EU has the right to insist on what terms.

It’s this conundrum that is constantly denied by the majority of the political class in the UK but that is the reality.

Now we are looking at a fragile British democracy which is stuck in the past with a monocracy and a ruling class struggling with “damage limitation” but the damage is already done no matter what happens in October.

So let’s look at the extension period till October.

What is it?

It is basically membership in all but name.

In Brexit terms, this means that the UK can revoke Article 50 unilaterally before its agreement enters into force or if it does not enter in force, until October 2019.

What problem is that for the EU27?

Frankly speaking, none other than the absurdity of 73 UK MEPs contesting the European elections without revoking Article 50.

Will the six months extension achieve anything other than a UK General election that could produce a hard line socialist government with serious problems both economically and politically with rejoining?

Yes.

The collapse to the Union.

A revocation decision would run counter to the outcome of the UK referendum. By approving the withdrawal agreement, the UK becomes a rule-taker with no voice. By rejecting the withdrawal agreement, it faces serious and radical economic disruption.

Either way, the ultimate decision must be made through the British political system that does not represent the people as a whole, because of the first past the post.

The pressure is now taken off from the EU and is now entirely on the UK.

IT IS QUITE OBVIOUS THAT:

If we genuinely look at what are the real problems with Brexit.

If Northern Ireland signed up to single market rules on goods the UK would likely seek a deal for the region which also included services because the bulk of the UK’s economy lies in the services sector rather than in goods.

The British would be shooting themselves in the foot because it plays to the advantage of the EU27 who have a net positive balance towards the UK in goods.

IF THIS WAS TO HAPPEN:

Should the EU limit membership of the single market in Northern Ireland to those areas that are relevant to the Good Friday agreement.

If — and it’s a big if — the UK wants to keep the Good Friday Agreement, the only satisfactory option is full [EU] membership.

“That is the only logical conclusion.”

If the British government is serious about saying it will not contemplate internal legislative divergence within the UK, the entire UK has to stay in the single market.

The logical consequence then is to say, if the UK is bound to keep at least part of the United Kingdom in the single market because of the Good Friday agreement, the choice is: Either it renounces the Good Friday Agreement and then it can indeed leave the single market and customs union. Or it keeps the UK inside the European Union because democratically, that’s the only serious option.

But it would be stupid for the British government to be happy with a single market just for goods. It would insist on having a single market for services — and then you are in the full single market.

It is not a negative for the European Union to accept an extension status for the United Kingdom because that status must come with obligations.

Nothing basically changes, except that the Brits are not sitting at the table.

However, just imagine that a new British government — because it does not feel bound by whatever the previous government did — says: ‘OK, we believe the decision to leave that way was the wrong decision and we want to reconsider. This is the reason that the EU is offering a long extension a period in which Britain could “digest what it really means to be a member of the European Union and what it really means not to be a member.

However, it’s entirely possible the UK will be back where it started at the end of extra time.

In the long run, the influence of GB in Europe and the greater world is being significantly weakened by Brexit. While it is true that many countries may well want to trade with Britain on leaving contrary to the views of the Brexiteers it will not be their term, not English terms.

So we are left with the very fitness of the English political system in a modern world driven by technology.

Both the EU and the UK are the immovable fact of geography.

How long before the UK is a ‘new member?

Less time than trade talks.

All human comments appreciated. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.