( A fifteen-minute read)

Claims that there will or won’t be border controls on the island of Ireland are predictions, not facts, at this stage but Brexit means that the UK’s only land border will also be an external border from the EU’s point of view.

That matters for two main reasons.

One is immigration and the other is the trade in goods, neither of which have many controls on them within the EU.

Any hard border would have massive economic, political and security implications.

Outside the EU’s Customs Union, it will be necessary to impose customs checks on the movement of goods across the border.  Because if there is no EU-UK agreement on free trade in goods, there will be some British taxes on imports from Ireland, and vice versa.

There is talk of a deal, that would be confined to goods originating in the UK or the EU.

This is the pattern for the EU’s free trade agreements with countries such as Norway and Canada. Without these ‘rules of origin’, and a way of enforcing them, goods made in a country like China could be imported through Ireland, avoiding UK import taxes.

One way or the other with or without a trade deal, there is still a need for some way of checking on the goods being taken across the border, either to work out the taxes due on them or to verify that they don’t need to be paid.

It’s time to stop the bull shit > so let’s try and sort out the realities from the fantasies.

For there to be no border there will have to have “regulatory alignment” with the rest of Ireland in order to keep the border free of controls. This can only be achieved if Northern Ireland remains in the EU either by uniting with Ireland or breaking away from the UK.

If not Brexit will restore the old border created by the partition of Ireland?

Should arrangements be permanent or temporary? How hard or soft should the border be: electronic, policed or militarised?

The chances of either of these happing are zero.

There was a very strong ethnonational basis to voting in the Referendum.

It seems 85% of Catholics voted Remain, compared to only 40% of Protestants.

I would say that both less-educated Protestants/unionists and Catholics who voted for the UK to leave the EU but undoubtedly did not imagine they were voting for Northern Ireland to become distinct from the rest of the UK?

I would also say that any border no matter what form it takes will undermine the Catholic/nationalist sense of connection with the rest of Ireland?

So alongside the logistical questions – about the technology needed to manage such a porous border – lie these equally important identity issues.

As for Migration:

World War II aside, there has never been controls on migration between the UK and Ireland. People can use the open border to travel illegally from Ireland to Northern Ireland and on to the rest of the UK, and likewise in the other direction.

This is currently addressed by “Operation Gull”, in which immigration officers check passengers on routes between Northern Ireland and the island of Great Britain. This is designed to compensate for the lack of checks on unauthorized travel across the north/south border. Claiming this won’t change after Brexit assumes that these measures will still be enough to police the open border which is totally impossible.

If the UK wants to put restrictions on EU immigration or short visits, that will generate more illegal cross-border movement. At the moment, Operation Gull only has to catch unauthorized migrants from non-EU countries.

There’s never been a situation where Ireland accepted free movement of people and the UK didn’t.

No matter how you address the border Brexit has serious consequences for political stability and has placed the constitutional question, which has largely been parked over the past 20 years, back on the table.

Politically, Northern Ireland can only work on the basis of sharing and interdependence.

The whole ethos of the Good Friday agreement was about breaking down barriers and allowing people to lead their lives on a north-south and east-west access. Yet Brexit entails new divisions and borders.

An outcome in which Northern Ireland continued to participate in the single market would allow Northern Ireland to fully engage in both the EU single market and the UK’s internal market. This can only be achieved through Northern Ireland remaining in line with EU law and regulations. Operating to these higher standards should not compromise simultaneous engagement with the rules of the market in Great Britain.

In this sense, Northern Ireland could be a bridge.

Indeed, a satisfactory compromise around this type of approach could bring much needed political stability and cohesion to Northern Ireland.

Unfortunately, although Northern Ireland overall voted was to remain within the EU Mrs. May bribed the DUP for support to prop-up her minority Tory Government.

In the end, the British Government will endeavor to fudge the Northern Ireland’s current constitutional position by sacrifice the Good Friday agreement in exchange for their whole vision of a glorious post-Brexit future based on Britain’s ability to do great trade deals and be a trusted partner on the world stage.

Yet to get there they now have to start by tearing up two of the most important international deals Britain has signed in its recent history, both of them legally binding.

All human comments appreciated. All Like clicks chucked in the bin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

( A three minute read)

Brexit negotiations are about to restart and we just witness the collapse of one of the UK biggest private companies.

Although few people yet realize it, the UK is bankrupt:

The Government cannot pay its debts nor will it be able to pay for its departure from the EU unless it get an extended transition period, even then it will be on HP terms.

Unfortunately, the Government’s official debt is not the real problem:

The Government’s ‘official’ debt is only a small percentage of its true debt exposure. The official debt is merely the tip of a very large hidden iceberg.

The Government’s true debt is the present value of all the commitments it has entered into, on the expectation that these commitments will be paid for by future taxpayers.

One recent estimate suggested that a UK citizen born in 2011 will inherit, on birth, a debt of perhaps £200,000, and it could easily be much more.

It is simply inconceivable that debts on this scale will be paid off in full.

Nor will they be.

These were not debts that youngsters freely took on, but obligations incurred on their behalf in many cases before they were even born.

The moral question of course is:

At what point does the debt become so large that future children will be born into a new form of slavery, entering the world shackled by the debts of their forbears?

The whole political system is creating a huge intergenerational Ponzi scheme, passing the buck from one generation to the next, until the whole rotten system inevitably collapses under its accumulated weight.

With the collapse of Carillion the government is losing all control of its finances and will once again end up printing money to pay off its debts, so leading to hyperinflation and economic collapse.

the actions are both immoral and reckless with crippling liabilities on top of the national debt, two-thirds of which is made up of “unsustainable” public sector retirement monies.

Overall, the real cost of debt to every man, woman and child in the UK is £53,822 each or over a £100,00 if you are graduating University student.

Since the global financial crisis erupted in 2007. The Bank Of England  has pumped £445bn electronic money into the economy, by what is called quantitative easing programme

 Public sector pensions are a ticking debt bomb with around £1.3trillion needed to cover 93 per cent of the benefits that are currently unfunded.

Britain ‘set for BANKRUPTCY amid £1.85 trillion of hidden debt’

Future generations will inherit a bankrupt country, with two new worthless aircraft carriers, an unusable nuclear deterrent, a high-speed rail system going nowhere, a health service in tatters, a broken up UK, a State funereal that going to cost millions, a pound that worth toilet paper, etc

Make no mistake about it: The country is bankrupt.

Benefits across the board will be cut, massively: the government will renege big-time on many of its commitments, breaking its health, pensions and other promises on a huge scale.

The social and economic consequences don’t bear thinking about.

The cost of Brexit by now should be apparent with a loss of £350m a week to the UK economy.

If you asked me Brexit is far from inevitable.

The collective failure of the English to understand that in a world driven by technology there is no such thing as Sovereign.

The whole fabric of England is at the moment jeopardize.

There are still fifteen months until Britain departs.

I am convinced that the British people provided they are provided with a credible and ambitious social plan that recognizes that the balance of advantages lies in continued EU Membership.

Through humility and what is called cop on.  A new settlement addressing Britain’s inequalities and the EU need to reform can be achieved. 

I can hear the outs saying look at Greece.

The Greek government, which faces more debt repayment deadlines this summer, said it was hoping for a “positive conclusion” to the protracted review of its bailout programme. It has lost more than 25% of its GDP – the biggest downturn to be experienced by an advanced western economy in peacetime – since its financial collapse seven years ago.

So England can rest assured that Brexit will have ‘Grexit’ for company. A debt payment of €7 billion is due in July.

Or Greece could just default out of the euro zone.

Stranger things have happened: Before the term “Brexit” was invented, “Grexit” was the far better-known word — and the more plausible scenario.

All Human comments appreciated. All like clicks chucked in the bin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

( A two-minute read)

England is gradually learning that their initial ambitions for Brexit are unrealistic and few will deny, the EU is in urgent need of reform.

Talks can now move on to their next phase with a two-year time capsule transition period with no proportional link whatsoever between IQ and wealth.

The EU has got rid of the UK but the UK has not left the EU. Brilliant! This creative ambiguity means big battles still ahead.

So where are we now?

If we believe that there is no deal till the whole deal is approved, we need our heads examined. Its taking shape whether we like it or not.

A deal which has everything and nothing to do with people.

Under the new agreement brokered Friday, EU and U.K. citizens will get to retain their rights “derived from Union law and based on past life choices, where those citizens have exercised free movement rights by the specified date.

That means they will get to keep their social security and health care, their employment and education rights, and their “tax advantages.” However, there’s a big downside too—they will be bound to the country where they’re living.

For Brits that already live in EU countries that aren’t the U.K., that means they would lose the automatic right to then move and live anywhere they like within the bloc. Basically for Brits in rest of EU: applying for a new passport is the only way to secure Freedom of movement.

EU citizens living in the U.K. will get to retain their EU rights after Brexit, the British courts will still have to defer to CJEU judgements that affect those rights.

When it comes to Northern Ireland and Ireland border the consequences of a hard Brexit are of little consideration as long as unionist objectives are met. Even more concerning is the free rein that Foster has in the absence of Executive constraint in Northern Ireland.

The Never Never party simple desire is to reassert unionism not to represent the people’s of Northern Ireland.

It is the party’s reasoning behind the rejection that is of concern – their willingness to jeopardise everything for a hard Brexit that secures their unionist identity.

The DUP argues that it does not wish to see a hard border between North and South, yet their actions in recent days clearly indicate a desire for a hard Brexit, which must mean installing a hard border.

Naïvely both the EU and England are overlooked the historical and contemporary politics and culture of the DUP.

On the border issue, the U.K. and EU have essentially agreed to kick the can down the road, in order to stop talks from breaking down entirely. But what’s new—and huge—is that if there’s no resolution to this question, the default position will be the U.K. staying within the single market.

This will ideally be the result of the overall U.K.-EU relationship that exists after Brexit, but if not, the U.K. will suggest a specific deal regarding that particular stretch of border.

If that proposal doesn’t fly, the whole of the U.K. will basically have to stay within the EU internal market and customs union—and there will be no new regulatory barriers separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the U.K.—unless Northern Ireland wants them. And whatever happens, Northern Irish businesses will retain “unfettered access” to the U.K. market.

On top of all that, everyone who was born in Northern Ireland will retain their right to EU citizenship (though this is less of a novelty, as Northern Irish people can already claim Irish citizenship anytime they like).

The enlightened ones in the EU should at least demand that Nigel Farage EU pension is payed out of the settlement figure. ( Twenty years @ 73,000 pa = 1,460,000) 

If we are not vigilant we could all end up as hog wash.

All human comments appreciated. All like clicks chucked in the bin.