( Four minute read)
Have we reached a tipping point, that moment from which a system irreversibly changes state?
I say yes.
Climate tipping points could lock in unstoppable changes to the planet, self-sustaining shifts in the climate system that would lock-in devastating changes, like sea-level rise, even if all emissions ended.
Inhabitants of New York on Wednesday are invited to stay at home and to use masks outdoors. More than 100 million Americans are now affected by air quality alerts due to wild fires in Canada.
In the mean time melting of the sea ice in the Arctic will inevitably lead to a warming of the region: a huge white space, the pack ice reflects light when the sun shines 24 hours a day in summer.
It lowers the temperature of the Arctic. The disappearance of the pack ice – icy water already present in the ocean – will not directly lead to a rise in the sea and the rise in global temperature caused by the melting of the sea ice risks in turn leading to extreme climatic events: heat waves, droughts, floods, etc.
Are we all screwed?
Yes.
Why?
Because every fraction of a degree makes tipping more likely, but we can’t be sure exactly when tipping becomes inevitable as one tipping point speeds up the next.
These signals can’t tell us exactly how close we are to tipping points, only that destabilisation is underway and a tipping point may be approaching.
These changes are just the beginning of worse to come.
The scale of recent changes across the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years, and it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.
The most we can be sure of is that every fraction of further warming will destabilise these tipping elements more and make the initiation of self-sustaining changes more likely.
“It’s a huge red flag, but there’s still time to save everything else.”
The temporary reduction in carbon emissions caused by global COVID-19 lockdowns did not slow the relentless advance of climate change.
To implement climate change goals as geopolitical uncertainties threaten to undermine their efforts,
The world is yet to get to a “positive tipping point” in the fight against climate change. 
It is now very likely that the 5-year average temperature for 2021–2025 will pass the 1.5 °C threshold.
Even if emissions are reduced to limit warming to well below 2 °C, the global average sea level would likely rise by 0.3–0.6 m by 2100 and could rise 0.3–3.1 m by 2300.
Three-quarters of people in the world’s wealthiest nations believe humanity is pushing the planet towards a dangerous tipping point and support a shift of priorities away from economic profit.
People know we are taking colossal risks, they want to do more and they want their governments to do more. We and they must move faster to implement more ambitious policies to protect and regenerate our global commons.
People in power seem to feel it is OK to fell old trees or destroy natural ecosystems for buildings or roads, or to dig up oil, so long as they then plant new trees. But this approach is not working.
Overall, 74% of people agreed that countries should move beyond focussing on gross domestic product and profit, and instead focus more on the health and wellbeing of humans and nature.
Its now or never for global cooperation to tackle shared challenges.
There is now a need for major economic and social transformation.
Currently the world is heading toward ~2 to 3°C of global warming; at best, if all net-zero pledges and nationally determined contributions are implemented it could reach just below 2°C.
One barrier appears to be media coverage. It is not helped the understanding of the issues, or what is at stake.
You don’t have to be told that it will not take much to tip us all into killing each other.
All human comments appreciated. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.
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