Certainly Britain cannot be rewarded and it will not be allowed to pick and choose at will policies that it wants to participate in or abstain from.
SO WHAT IS THE HYPOTHETICAL FUTURE OF ENGLAND OUTSIDE THE EU?
THERE ARE SOME EFFECTS THAT ARE OBVIOUS AND OTHER THAT ONLY TIME WILL TELL.
It is obvious that there is going to be a political ‘price’ to be paid by the UK. Significantly less political influence compared to EU membership.
It is obvious that England exit from the EU will inevitably affect the future of the EU.
It is obvious that there will be costs in the way of replacing trade with the EU with trade with other, more distant countries due to the gravity law in international trade.
It is obvious that if the Conservatives secure a landslide victory in the forthcoming general election in July the UK will descend into one-party statehood in a vortex of economic failure.
It is obvious that it will impose immigration quotas on individual EU countries. Discriminated between the different EU member states. As of 2014, there were 5.3 million non-UK nationals resident in the UK, of whom EU nationals accounted for 3.3 million. Of those, 2.2 million currently work in the UK. Around 84 per cent of them already have the right to stay post-Brexit. Those advocating the exit of the UK from the EU as a solution to unwanted intra-EU immigration do not seem to have grasped the unpalatable nature of the alternatives even in the terms of their own anti-immigration agenda.
It is obvious that a reciprocal deals on emergency healthcare like the ones it already has with a number of non-EU countries around the world can be arranged.
It is obvious that the byzantine complexity of withdrawal negotiations and harsh trade agreement terms dictated by the EU will sent the pound into a corkscrew spin, unstabilizing stock markets worldwide.
It is obvious that it will make futile efforts to protect sterling.
It is obvious that interest rates will raise to prevent a falling pound leading to higher inflation.
It is obvious that the knock on effect of this will increase the price of exports and imports, plus tariffs will lead to the privatize the NHS.
It is obvious that there will be a reduction in in tax receipts resulting in higher government borrowing, large tax rises or major cuts in public spending.
It is obvious that the form of subsidies and grants that British farmers get from the Common Agricultural Policy along with various economic development and scientific research projects get from the EU ( £6 billion a year. Taking account of the money that comes back and the aid spending, Britain in 2015 gave almost £6.5 billion to the EU) will change.
In 2015, the UK’s full membership fee was £17.8 billion. However, Britain doesn’t pay that full fee it receives a reduction making its contribution £12.9 billion.
It is not so obvious that it will need an IMF loan.
It is obvious that any special relationship with the USA will not be worth the paper it is written on. America’s $45trn debt prohibits a loan.
It is obvious that any financial settlements will have to be met on the never-never.
It is obvious that such an arrangement will have to be agreed under both English law and EU laws.
It is obvious that if there is any default in payments it will affect any trade agreement. Weakening any trade deals outside the EU.
It is obvious that the Scots will voted decisively for independence.
It is obvious that it will sour relationships with Ireland. An important part of the EU single market is that tariffs are not imposed on goods and services traded across national boundaries within the trading bloc.
It is obvious that it could destabilise the Northern Ireland peace process if border controls have to be reintroduced, stoking sectarian sentiment.
It is obvious that Scotland will rejoin the EU.
It is obvious that there will be an exodus from the City of financial services firms, to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin.
It is obvious that the property market will be in decline.
It is obvious that any form of a continental partnership will not work.
It is obvious that wages in real terms will decline, exploited by firms freed from EU employment legislation.
It is obvious that the UK Parliament will face congestion as MPs unpick EU laws.
It is obvious that it could cause a constitutional crisis if pro-EU MPs, who are in a majority, carry out their threat to hold a vote to keep the UK in the single market.
It is obvious that the EU is by far the main market for UK products.
It is obvious that the UK leaving the EU will cause great damage, economic and otherwise, to both the Union and the United Kingdom.
At the end of the day the UK is up against 27 other countries, each of which will all have their own goals in these negotiations.
It is obvious that in the longer term England will find out if can prosper as an independent nation or it has inflicted a massive act of economic self harm.
It is obvious that there will be a growing divide between cities and rural areas, identity, and the future of the nation-state.
It is obvious that the UK has two years to negotiate its exit with the EU. If no deal is forthcoming it can ask for an extension but that would require the approval of all EU member states.
It is obvious that we are all going to have to Brace yourself for a lot of horse trading.
Britain does not just have to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU. It will have to re negotiate trade deals with 53 other countries currently covered by our membership of the EU.
It is obvious it will have to strike new agreements with Europe on policing, consumer rights, border control and the environment. These could all take years to resolve.
It is obvious that there are still a lot of unknowns.
It is not obvious if UK citizens will need to be given new passports that state if they live in the EU or in England or Wales.
Here are a few hard facts:
With about €14 trillion in terms of goods and services, its economy surpasses the U.S. Brexit will be a watershed event for Europe and for the European process of unification and integration.
Apart from the EU, there is also the Council of Europe, which is an international organization in Strasbourg with 47 member states, including the UK. It’s Europe’s leading human rights organization and is known for its European Convention on Human Rights, which restricts the death penalty. It also makes judgments through the European Court of Human Rights.
To complicate matters further, there will not be one set of negotiations (between the UK and the EU27) but several: Its assembly is more convoluted than the U.S. federal government, because there are different languages, histories, cultures and different degrees of economic development among these countries.
Never mind the Article 50 procedure. An annoyance and a waste of time, it is ultimately inconsequential. The UK will withdraw the request to leave the European Union.
It can do this at any time until the end of the two-year period, whenever the government has come to its senses and found a better strategy to get what the British people want.
The intention can be reversed at any time over two years.
At present it is dragging its EU relatives along against their will, in chains made of unwritten constitution?
What if the departure causes pain to all others in the EU and destabilizes the whole neighbourhood? Then there is an obligation to speak up and recall that it is only England and Wales, that wants to leave the EU.
Some 63 per cent of the registered electorate did not vote for Brexit in the EU referendum on June 23, 2016; only 37 per cent did.
The UK is a federation by any definition.
It may be politically centralized, but the nations that share the British Isles have retained their clearly demarcated territories, identities, flags and their separate laws, institutions and customs.
They have everything that marks sovereign states and they even field separate national football teams.
The Swiss know that legitimacy of a referendum requires super-majorities of the people and the constituent parts of the federation. This lesson is applied in the voting rules in the EU Council of Ministers, but wilfully ignored by David Cameron when he set up the EU referendum.
The whole thing is a sham that is going to line the pockets of the rich.
The Big Bang of Brexit is only the start of a new era.
Let’s hope the thunder of 29 March doesn’t signal a storm to come.
What has been sadly and persistently lacking in all of this is the political will and ability to put its people first.
And we shouldn’t feel reassured even if the U.K. ends up still in the EU. At stake are the daily lives and interests of millions of people on both sides of the Channel.
The big question is: Is this merely a local British affliction, or does it portend a more global anger against the governing structures of our time?
All comments appreciated. All like clicks chucked in the bin.