( Fifteen-minute read)
In one sense, as no one knows the future, no one or any organisation is able, to tell the truth about climate change.
There is not a politician on earth who wants to tell his or her constituents the truth when it comes to Climate Change so we’ve probably already blown our chance to avoid substantial suffering, but we can somewhat reduce the even worse suffering that awaits our grandchildren.
However, the truth is that the evidence for rapid climate change is now more than compelling:
Unfortunately, are we not able as a species to confront the facts?
Humans are subject to intense status quo bias.
Especially on the conservative end of the psychological spectrum — which is the direction all humans move when they feel frightened or under threat — there is a powerful craving for the message that things are, basically, okay, that the system is working like it’s supposed to, that the current state of affairs is the best available, or close enough.
No matter how we look at it the truth is, that on our current trajectory, in the absence of substantial new climate policy, current warming is heading for up to 4°C and may be higher by the end of the century.
On any clear reading of the available evidence, no one or any country wants to financially foot the economic cost of reducing emissions.
We are headed for disaster — slowly, yes, but surely with the outcome determined not by us but by earth itself.
We are now facing a situation in which limiting temperature even to either 2/ 3°C requires heroic policy and technology changes, not to mention trillions and trillions in investment.
Capitalism might be “decoupling ” carbon emissions but whether we like it or not the worrying implication is that emissions will be much higher than expected even if climate action continues and is ramped up.
It is true to say that over the course of the Earth’s 4.5-billion-year history, the climate has changed a lot. This is true. But the rapid warming we’re seeing now can’t be explained by natural cycles of warming and cooling. This much faster warming corresponds with levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which have been increasing since the industrial revolution.
Let’s be clear, CO2 itself does not cause problems. It’s part of the natural global ecosystem.
We’re already seeing the devastating effects of climate change on global food supplies, increasing migration, conflict, disease and global instability, and this will only get worse if we don’t act now.
It threatens the future of the planet that we depend on for our survival and we’re the last generation that can do something about it.
The fact that everyone involved has to dance around the obvious truth, at risk of losing their status and influence will once again be displayed at the forthcoming UN conference.
But that’s where we’re headed.
It will take enormous effort just to avoid that fate and we’re running out of time; we’ve only got five or 10 years to turn things around, but we can do it, if we just not only put our minds to agreeing a 0.05% world aid commission on all activities that produce profit for profit sake. ( See previous posts)
The problem is, while carbon capture is getting less, as more and more forests are either cut down or burned across the world, largely to produce our food or palm oil or cosmetics etc, Governments are still backing dirty fossil fuels.
The technology and systems we need to move to 100% renewable energy by 2045 and use our planet’s resources sustainably are already available.
What’s now needed is for political and business leaders to take bold and urgent action towards using these solutions to address the climate crisis and restore nature.
Given what we know about human beings, path dependence, and political dysfunction we will not be able to suck thousands of megatons of carbon out of the atmosphere, so humanity can go net negative by 2100.
Capitalism is already turning climate change into a product.
Before its too late – there is no way that the world will come to any agreement unless there is an equitable distribution of the costs.
Capitalism profit contributed to it so let it do it again but in reverse.
This is the brutal logic of climate change.
Even if we emit a bunch more carbon in the short term. “deployment of large-scale bioenergy faces biophysical, technical and social challenges will cause massive social unrest.
No branch of science, certainly not climatology, can tell us what the humans of 2050 are capable of. We are all, on that score, making educated guesses, and a knowledge of history, politics, and economics will be just as important to that judgment as any knowledge of the physical sciences.
We can watch footage of Trump calling climate change “a hoax … a money-making industry” and not be left winded by such staggering ignorance or astonishing deceit, though it is, more likely, more bleakly, a catastrophic combination of the two.
The evidence that climate change is a serious problem that we must contend with now, is overwhelming on its own. There is no need to overstate the evidence, particularly when it feeds a paralyzing narrative of doom and hopelessness.
No one wants to pays but we will all pay in one way or the other.
All human comments appreciated
. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.