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(Twelve-minute read)

The 17,410,742 people who voted Leave did so in full knowledge of the consequences.

This is obviously far from reality.

The reality is that simmering below the surface of Brexit is that the EU will be poorer for the loss of England but it will continue to shape legislation and regulatory standards that will affect British businesses now and in the future.

Far from ‘making Britain great again’ the vote seems to have divided friends and families as well as the United Kingdom itself. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. The DUP claims to speak for the people of Northern Ireland. Only five of the thirty-three London boroughs voted to leave the EU.

The great tragedy is that after two world wars we once again waiting on the consequences that are yet to come.

It could be said, Brexit and quantum physics both remain incomprehensible to most observers.

One way or the other Brexit now has deeper domestic political consequences.

Nexit Image

There are many intriguing aspects of a UK exit not to mention the Legal expenses to untie forty years of regulations and laws.

Apart from causing a sharp, short-term hit to Britain’s economy, what circumstances will we be dealing with to navigate through this period?

The first consequence of a no-deal will be a UK government not just in a financial crisis but unable to govern.

Why?

Because the UK was always going to suffer a massive economic hit in return for reasserting its precious constitutional and sovereign independence.

Because of the impact of reduced demand for UK exports from the loss in EU market access, which at the moment is totally underestimated along with the reduction in UK investment associated with reductions in FDI will force a recession within a year.

Which will not be counterbalanced by the projected savings from repatriating the UK’s net contributions to the EU.

The EU will not allow the UK, upon leaving, to have the same level of market access that it now has without paying a price.

Britain will not be able to leave the EU and remain in the single market unless it is willing to sign up to EU rules that it did not help to write.

A World Trade Organisation (WTO) relationship will involve the biggest increase in tariff barriers – and, more important, non-tariff barriers – to trade, reducing the British economy’s productivity and curbing inward investment.

It follows that leaving the EU and ‘de-Europeanising’ British regulation would do little to boost its economy.

There will be a decline in productivity from restrictive migration.

Whether there is a deal or no deal it has already damage relations between London and other EU capitals and here is no douth that the political landscape will change in the not so distant future.

However, nothing much will change within or about the EU.

The far-right will not come to power in any EU country. But it will be capable of attracting enough support to shape political debate, on the left as well as the right, and therefore to influence governments’ actions.

So for the sake of protecting that unity, the EU will be in no mood to offer generous post-Brexit deals for Britain.

Negotiations will be in danger of turning into an acrimonious tug of war.

Brexit will not harm the EU’s cohesion, confidence and international reputation.

As Brexit will disrupt the EU’s internal equilibrium closer economic and monetary union might be out of reach in the short term but further integration will continue.

What we know so far.

A no-deal will make negotiating a new trade deal with the EU tricky, and all

EU legislation, along with free trade, would end immediately.

More than 100 banks have set up in London as a gateway to Europe. That could end if Britain leaves. London is already faced pressure inside the EU to give up trading in euro-denominated derivatives, a trillion-dollar market.

It will deter investment in the UK economy.

What new strategies will come to fruition in the longer term?

The Eu did not cause the chaos we now see in the UK political system which is totally out of date and non-representative of its citizens with first past the post.

We are witnessing the appointment of a new Primister without a mandate from the whole of the country.

We are witnessing a risk of a break-up of the UK in the event of a no-deal.

We are witnessing a Northern Ireland tied to England with a no-deal outside the EU which could see the emerging of conflict again.

We are witnessing a vis-a-vis conflict with Spain on the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

EU leaders have reiterated that there will be no negotiation over the UK’s

membership of the bloc.

At the moment British people can live freely elsewhere in the EU, and this is a major benefit for the 1.8 million people who do so. If this were to change either way the EU’s relationship with Britain could become toxic.

The impact of EU competition and procurement rules on the NHS is contentious. As the relevant EU directives have already been incorporated into UK law, the government would need to repeal or amend the law if it wished to reverse current arrangements.

To leave the EU could have major implications for health and social care, not least because it has ushered in a period of significant economic and political uncertainty at a time when the health and care system is facing huge operational and financial pressures.

The government will need to negotiate arrangements with the EU as to how both ‘ordinarily resident’ UK citizens and citizens from elsewhere in the EU will access health care services in future.

It will create numerous consequences in the sporting sector mainly related to the massive presence of foreign players in the Premier League championship.

The results all point to a grave act of self-harm.

If Leave supporters could have foreseen the result of their votes, how many would have changed sides?

There will be no point in saying why did nobody tell us what the consequences were?

All human comments appreciated. All like clicks and abuse chucked in the bin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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