Monthly Archives: April 2015

History never begins with a sudden event. Isis now presents itself as an ideologically superior alternative to Al-Qaida.

08 Wednesday Apr 2015

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The other day I came across the term Fourth Generation Warfare.  A term used by military thinkers to describe conflict at the end of the 20th century.

Now I am no General but my first reaction to the term was ” Fourth Generation – Kill everyone up to and including Great Grand Dad.”

The problem is that our traditional definition of “war” is outdated, and so is our imagination of what war means.

How many wars have you witnessed since World war Two.

So how many the easy answer might just be: too many.

I was lucky like most of us these days as I was not around for either of the World Wars. 

 

Some time ago I wrote a post ” We watch as a civilization thousands of years old goes to rack and ruin Nov 2014.

With 20 million soldiers worldwide and every conceivable weapon it’s no wonder we have a world that is incapable of living in respect of each other.

Right now in 2015, it’s hard not to get desensitized to death and violence.

https://youtu.be/ALDyfZMJOmA

The Syrian war is now in its fifth year.

Anyway back to the term Fourth Generation Warfare.

This term is used to describe the current growing inferno that is currently wreaking havoc in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen which will engulf the whole region and beyond and has the potential to push it over the threshold into a third world war.

What is needed is a concept which explains to blinkered military and political leaders why *they cannot win* unless they change what they are doing in *truly radical* ways.  Why?  Because what has changed is the near instantaneous nature of the cognitive and moral aspects of war, empowered through information technology.

What we are really seeing is that the increased “dispersion and democratization of technology, information, and finance” brought about by globalization has given terrorist groups greater mobility and access worldwide.

Isis ,Hamas and Hezbollah ( If you consider the latter two terrorist organisations) ,especially, have established themselves as organizations capable of addressing the everyday problems of their constituencies. They are integrating themselves into the social and political fabric of Muslim societies worldwide.

While we watch they are turning their constituencies into effective weapons by creating strong social, political, and religious ties with them; in short, they have become communal activists for their constituencies, which have, in turn, facilitated the construction and maintenance of substantial financial and logistical networks and safe houses. This support then aids in the regeneration of the terrorist groups.

We see that even in the so-called information age, the use of brute force remains an effective tactic in many parts of the world.

Terrorists, guerrillas, and similar actors generally aimed at eroding an opponent’s will to fight rather than destroying his means.

“Maybe those gangs of Islamist terrorists and Jihadists are doing a hell of a job destabilizing and fragmenting the Arab world.  And surely the US/EU will continue to look from on high and make-believe they see no terrorism and hear no terrorism until the whole region is set for a greater Israel scenario.”   To Quote (Hillary Clinton.)  The next President more than likely of the USA.

No boots and uniforms on the ground has turn ISIS, contrary to Al Qaeda hoax, into the most dangerous international terrorist organization the world has ever come to witness.

If ISIS is allowed to grow bigger in the hope of fragmenting the Arab world and giving more space and influence for the Zionist entity then this whole thing will turn into an imminent world menace.

Unfortunately or perhaps fortuitously there is no stomach in the west to tackle ISIS head on. That option has long gone.

The main target behind ISIS is to ignite a Shiite/Sunni inferno that is drag Saudi Arabia and Iran into a dreadful conflict that will destabilize and weaken both states.

ISIS is already issuing passports and promotional publications for the new Caliphate and is now presenting itself as an ideologically a superior alternative to al-Qaida.

All three groups – Jabhat al-Nusra and Zawahiri’s al-Qaida on the one hand, and Isis on the other – share the same goals: the creation of an Islamic state in Syria (and Iraq.)  Iraq is already a country of two distinct halves.

Everybody now seems to have some kind of involvement in this fight, which may have killed more than 200,000 people, and no one has a realistic idea of how to end it or for that matter to navigate the chaotic seeming tempest of our modern world.

One way other the other history never begins with a sudden event.

No matter what terminology we use ISIS definitely has its origins in the USA invasion of Iraq after 9/11.  It is now shaped by the nature of conflict which is taking on an increasingly sectarian characteristic. As a Jihadist organization claiming to represent the true Islamic Khilafat, its project( for the lack of a better word) will not stop at the current borders and it will continue seeking to expand its territory.  Building its own state and consolidating its power in the areas it manages to control.

So where do we stand to-day?

As the attention of the world focused on Ukraine and Gaza, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis)  captured a third of Syria in addition to the quarter of Iraq it had seized in June.

The frontiers of the new Caliphate declared by Isis on 29 June are expanding by the day and now cover an area larger than Great Britain and inhabited by at least six million people, a population larger than that of Denmark, Finland or Ireland.

It is believed to have some 30,000 fighters in its ranks, with about 10% of them from the West. ( 3,000 Westerners)

In a few weeks of fighting in Syria Isis established itself as the dominant force in the Syrian opposition, routing the official al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, in the oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor and executing its local commander as he tried to flee.

In northern Syria some five thousand Isis fighters are using tanks and artillery captured from the Iraqi army in Mosul to besiege half a million Kurds in their enclave at Kobani on the Turkish border.

In central Syria, near Palmyra, Isis fought the Syrian army as it overran the al-Shaer gas field, one of the largest in the country, in a surprise assault that left an estimated three hundred soldiers and civilians dead. Repeated government counter-attacks finally retook the gas field but Isis still controls most of Syria’s oil and gas production.

Branches of ISIS have sprung up in Egypt and Libya, and in March 2015, the Nigerian-based Islamist sect Boko Haram pledged allegiance to ISIS.

ISIS is definitely not Al Qaeda.  Al Qaeda distanced itself from ISIS as it grew increasingly violent and intolerant, even of Muslims.

It has no boundaries in regard to its savagery.

This inferno will not be controllable, and nobody will be immune from it, most of all the Jewish state of Israel (maybe only then the US/EU will regain some of their lost senses and start to see and hear the evil of their own doing.)

Our reluctance to act promptly and decisively with the present and imminent danger of ISIS might seems contradictory to their holy Gospel of war on terrorism, but a closer look will reveal the perfect harmony of the western passive stand with their newly adopted trend of 4th generation asymmetrical warfare.

What is the beauty of this new 4th generation warfare?

In brief, the theory holds that warfare has evolved through four generations:

1) The use of massed manpower, 2) firepower, 3) maneuver, and now 4) An evolved form of insurgency that employs all available networks—political, economic, social, military—to convince an opponent’s decision makers that their strategic goals are either unachievable or too costly.

This is laughable : The Caliphate may be poor and isolated but its oil wells and control of crucial roads provide a steady income in addition to the plunder of war.

When it comes to ISIS is a different story; it’s an obviously more organized, highly militarily trained to use US sophisticated weaponry and attracting evermore young recruits from the west.  Who by the way through the Media are its biggest propaganda arm with on average 25 articles per day.

The group uses social media outlets such as Twitter, Whats App, and Facebook to promise new recruits material rewards, such as free housing and a steady salary.

Egypt

The most virulent militant organization in Egypt, pledged allegiance to ISIS.

Libya

At least three militant groups, one in each of Libya’s three regions, pledged allegiance to ISIS.

The group has also reportedly received funding from wealthy individuals in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey, and Qatar and then used the money to buy arms on the black market. These nations support ISIS because both consider Iran and Syria a threat, share anti-Shiite sentiment, and want to protect fellow Sunnis from violence sanctioned by Assad and Maliki.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have passed legislation banning such aid, but the governments have done little to enforce the laws.

As we are unwilling to cut the head of the serpent we can only hope that ISIS might have its own internal disagreements about the future. (A slow burn, rather than complete eradication, may be the best possible outcome).

First, a dispute with local populations and the more indigenous groups that have their distinct concerns and priorities other than the strict interpretation of Sharia law, and this dispute is already in place in Syria and some parts of Iraq.

The second.  A conflict within the organization between its Iraqi wing that might prioritize the “sectarian conflict” with Shias and issues related to communal identity, and the global wing that adopts the ideology of jihad and looks beyond Iraq.

So we are left with: Why do it yourself when your own enemies (infiltrated by covert operatives) could do it, even better, and change their own sovereign country into a failed state ready to be controlled and subjugated.

The price we might pay in a future conflict could be high indeed.

Life is not a solo act. It’s a huge collaboration.

We are the only beings on the planet who lead such rich internal lives that it’s not the events that matter most to us, but rather, it’s how we interpret those events that will determine how we think about ourselves and how we will act in the future.

Tony Robbins

So where does 4th Generation War come into the picture. War is war no matter what term you give.

It is a loose collection of ideas that does not hold up to close scrutiny.

4GW has reinvented itself several times, taking advantage of the latest developments in technology or tactics, and whatever ideas or theories happened to be in vogue is not working.

Victory in 4GW warfare is won in the moral sphere. The aim of 4GW is to destroy the moral bonds that allows the organic whole to exist — cohesion.

There does not seem to be anything Moral about ISIS or Drones.

Through the haze of horror and grief we all witness this war is becoming internationalized and we are running out of time to do anything about it.

Mr Bush wanted to leave Iraq divided up into three separate states along sectarian lines, Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish.  He got his wish.

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What does the Iran nuclear deal mean? To Israel.

03 Friday Apr 2015

Posted by in Politics.

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The Historical implications of the present conflict you can look up and indeed it is necessary to do so to come to any understanding.

Rooted in centuries of Social, Religious, and Political anguish.

It is sufficient for the purposes of this post to say the latest injury to one side becomes the next injury to the other.

There is no denying that a Jewish State was created in Palestine despite the fact that for over 1300 years it was overwhelmingly inhabited by Arabs.

Why it was formed is based on the biblical account in which God promised the land to the Jews who subsequently conquered and rule the land until along came the Romans 2000 years ago.

Putting aside recent history herein lies the issue as it stands today.

The Region holds historical and Religious significance to both groups. Both groups insist that the land belongs to them. Neither group has anywhere else to go. Both groups claim it is impossible to coexist.

They both  have incompatible Goals insofar as one groups sense of identity seem to deny the reality or legitimacy of the other groups identity.Iran nuclear talks

So what does the Iran nuclear deal mean?

Is the US opening a door to a new policy era in the Middle East with potentially far-reaching implications. Should it come to pass.  Is it a way to really make changes in the political landscape?

There is one thing for sure: If it does come to pass suddenly US support of Israel is no longer Unconditional.

It is time for Israelis to face the reality.

For Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even dismantling Iran’s civilian programme entirely does not satisfy the Netanyahu’s appetite; it is the Iranian ‘policies’, ‘behavior’ and ‘state’ that he wants eliminated.

How will Israel and Arab nations in the region respond?

Can the US balance newly competing interests in a region already torn by Sunni-Shia conflicts in Syria and Iraq. What about Yemen? All three conflicts have Iranian proxies in the fight.

Will the US have a much greater incentive to force Israel to solve its conflict with the Palestinians, something it resolutely opposed till now.

All of these questions are beyond my and many to answer.

It seems to me that Iran would not be the first country to acquire a sophisticated nuclear program without building an actual bomb. Japan, for instance, maintains a vast civilian nuclear infrastructure. Experts believe that it could produce a nuclear weapon on short notice.

Every time another country has managed to shoulder its way into the nuclear club, the other members have always changed tack and decided to live with it. In fact, by reducing imbalances in military power, new nuclear states generally produce more regional and international stability, not less. ( See previous Postings)

Israel’s regional nuclear monopoly would be broken.

So are we in the final stages of a decades-long Middle East nuclear crisis that will end only when a balance of military power is restored.

In 1981, Israel bombed Iraq to prevent a challenge to its nuclear monopoly. It did the same to Syria in 2007 and is now considering similar action against Iran.

You would think through all the tears of Jewish horror Israel would extend the hand of friendship by offering a One state solution.

Sadly the likely of this happening will take another biblical story. History rarely sleeps securely.

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Democracy is clearly suffering from serious structural problems.

02 Thursday Apr 2015

Posted by in Politics.

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Welcome to a world where the bottom line trumps the common good and government takes a back seat to big business.

I have addressed this subject before. We all have our opinions on Capitalism and Democracy or Capitalism V Democracy.

Capitalism’s role is to increase the economic pie, nothing more.

While Democracy, at its best, enables citizens to debate collectively how the slices of the pie should be divided and to determine which rules apply to private goods and which to public goods.

If we are to restructure the relationship we could not start at a better place than by Putting Ownership Back into Democracy.

Our Governments are paying the penalty for the years they allowed corporations and elites buoyed by runaway economic success to undermine the government’s capacity to respond to citizens’ concerns which has lead to:  A sense of political powerlessness which is on the rise among citizens in Europe and the USA.

Today, the tasks of re balancing is increasingly being left to the market.

Companies have shed their loyalties to communities with CEOs who take home exorbitant paychecks from industries that often wreak havoc on the environment. They have morph into global supply chains of great power plundering the world for Profit.

Much of labor inequality comes because high earners getting paid through stock options and capital ownership.

Relative poverty, what we are now calling inequality cannot be viewed in isolation from the larger economy. We must take disparities in the way the benefits of growth and productivity are distributed into account. We haven’t really begun to tackle this problem.

The result is an arms race for political influence that is drowning out the voices of average citizens.

If the Labor Party in the UK were to adopted Putting Ownership Back into Democracy such a policy which would return it to its core values would win them the forthcoming election.

While corporations are increasingly writing their own rules, they are also being entrusted with a kind of social responsibility or morality which of course does not exist as Corporate executives are not authorized by anyone — least of all by their investors — to balance profits against the public good.

Shareholders do not invest in firms expecting the money to be used for charitable purposes. They invest to earn high returns.

Now it the time to create Tax breaks for any privately owned company that offer participating of employees in a share of their profits or losses through stock options. Such a course of action should be encouraged – so that workers can supplement their wages with significant capital ownership stakes and meaningful capital income and profit shares.”

In other words, let’s turn everyone into a capitalist.

The purpose of democracy is to accomplish ends we cannot achieve as individuals.

But democracy cannot fulfill this role when companies use politics to advance or maintain their competitive standing, or when they appear to take on social responsibilities that they have no real capacity or authority to fulfill.

That leaves societies unable to address the trade offs between economic growth and social problems such as job insecurity, widening inequality, and climate change. As a result, consumer and investor interests almost invariably trump common concerns

It is worth contemplating for a moment Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them.

Indeed if any Political party were to recognizes that the worsening inequality is an inevitable outcome of free market capitalism it would be large a step in the right direction.

Entrepreneurs are become increasingly dominant over those who own only their own labor. For instance Zero Hour Contracts or for a better word Modern day slavery.

Politicians are surrendered more and more power to trade, to global markets and to what I call supranational bodies like the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the world trade organisation, the EU.

The question is, what is the point in electing any one when globalization is changing national politics and our states are activity selling your countries resources to privatization for short-term profit.

Fresh Water, Clean Air, Power, Rail Transport, Medical Care and Education should be state-owned.  Run by the Nation for the Nation not for the GDP.  

We are on a path toward a degree of inequality that will reach levels likely to cause severe social disruption. I don’t have to tell you where to look.

Politicians forget about the constant small changes which make up the whole economic picture and spend their time fighting between the past and future, between inherited entitlements and future investment. They put too much emphasis on elections and too little the other essential features of democracy.

It’s no wonder that politicians have to lie all the time.

There was a time that people elected representatives who pulled the levers of national power for a fixed period.

You don’t have to have a crystal ball when looking at the world to realize that economic growth worldwide is very likely to be stuck at 1 to 1.5 percent through the rest of this century.

And that the digital revolution it turning democracy’s institutions into out of date institutions that are handing more powers to special interests turning politics into the struggle of who gets what, when, how.

Technological changes and discontinuities (or globalization) have created a surge in inequality, where online hyper democracy rules and will continue to do so.

The Internet makes it easier to organise and agitate, in a world where people are voting daily in reality TV or supporting a petition with the click of a mouse. They only vote for Government every five years.

Political power changing is also a major contributor to the rise in inequality in advanced economies.

If we are honest with ourselves today, we will acknowledge that the ideal of Democracy has never failed, but that we haven’t carried it out, and in our lack of faith we have debased the human being who must have a chance to live if Democracy is to be successful.

The Moral Basis of Democracy (1940)

When the Clean Air Act was passed in the United States, the joke in Tokyo and Osaka was that while Ford and General Motors called in their lawyers, Toyota and Nissan called in their engineers.

Here is what going wrong.

If political power exactly followed economic power there is little hope for Democracy.

We all know that it is not possible to please all the people all of the time.

The problem is that democracy and capitalism are not bed partners.

Traditional liberal government policies on spending, taxation and regulation will fail to diminish inequality. The higher” the rate of return on capital is in comparison to the rate of growth of the economy. The higher this ratio is, the greater inequality is.

It all starting roughly with the onset of World War I.

The owners of capital – those at the top of the pyramid of wealth and income – absorbed a series of devastating blows. These included the loss of credibility and authority as markets crashed; physical destruction of capital throughout Europe in both World War I and World War II; the raising of tax rates, especially on high incomes, to finance the wars; high rates of inflation that eroded the assets of creditors; the nationalization of major industries in both England and France; and the appropriation of industries and property in post-colonial countries.

In Eisenhower’s words, “Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear from that party again in our political history.”

Leaving us with a belief that the economy is the be all and the end all to keep the masses happy.

However personal income distribution is getting more unequal — which indeed is what we have witnessed in the past 30 years. Zero Hour Contracts, no security, higher and higher Vat.

There is no point in creating millions of modern-day slavery jobs. They are worthless in galvanizing a nation’s wealth. Pride of ownership is what produces productivity and happiness. It’s not rocket science.

On a world scale to halt inequality there are a few options:

Create a World Aid Fund which feeds of Profit by placing a world aid Commission on all High Frequency Trading, on all Foreign Exchange Transactions ( over $20,000) on all Foreign Wealth Funds Acquisitions. (see previous Posts)

Or

Impose a global progressive tax on wealth – global in order to prevent (among other things) the transfer of assets to countries without such levies. A global tax, in this scheme, would restrict the concentration of wealth and limit the income flowing to capital.

Or

Impose an annual graduated tax on stocks and bonds, property and other assets that are customarily not taxed until they are sold.

The very infeasibility of establishing a global wealth tax serves to reinforce the argument concerning the inevitability of increasing inequality.

The International Labor Organization, an agency of the United Nations, reported recently that the number of unemployed grew by 5 million from 2012 to 2013, reaching nearly 202 million by the end of last year. It is projected to grow to 215 million by 2018.

No country can deal with Climate Change, and the forthcoming shortage of fresh water, never mind tax evasion.

The political economy is such that the political power to enact those taxes also requires a mobilized citizenry and institutional power, such as a robust labor movement.  When in fact all that people want is equal opportunity.

I am no Karl Marx but the capitalist economic system is in its present state undermining the democratic system by compromising the very values that democracy was founded upon.

It is imperative to remember that we are also citizens who have it in our power to reduce social costs, making the true price of the goods and services we purchase as low as possible for all.

Conclusion:

Since capitalism means the rule of a small elite in the economy, and democracy means the rule of all people, the option of capitalism as the base for democracy is questionable regardless of the wishes of the workers or the community.
Are there any authentic democratic institutions left.  No.
Lets hope Capitalism as we know it is obsolete well before machines do everything.
The contradictions between democracy and capitalism will be on full display in the UK elections if you are interested over the coming weeks.
https://youtu.be/9uNYsbOKIFw
https://youtu.be/iFDe5kUUyT0

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